High Desert, like the Jackson Generals, is in first place.  They don’t have quite the record Jackson has but it’s a very respectable 25-21.  Nice job!  It seems like most of their hitters have good slash lines so I’ll pick out the few I’m interested in and if you have questions about the others than just let me know in the comments.  As I’ve been doing, I’ll start with the hitters (so good news first here):

John Hicks (C) – .300/.350/.471, 5 HR, 14 2B, 32 RBI, 31/11 K/BB, .820 OPS

Just to drive the point home a little further, Hicks would have the 4th best OPS if he had been playing in Jackson.  On High Desert though his OPS is 10th best.  An .820 OPS is 10th best on the team!  That’s crazy!  Anyway, Hicks was Danny Hultzen’s catcher last year in college and was the M’s 4th round draft pick last year.  Sure enough, Hicks’ OPS is .300 points worse in road games than it is in home games.  He has homered 3 times on the road, while just twice at home.  That’s somewhat encouraging but 12 of his 14 doubles have come at home.  We’d like Hicks to walk more and strikeout less.  He’s a catcher in the Mariners’ system though so that won’t happen.

Jack Marder (C) – .350/.406/.556, 4 HR, 1 3B, 10 2B, 18 RBI, 18/8 K/BB, .962 OPS.

Marder was another college catcher drafted last year.  He went to Oregon and has split time between catcher and DH with Hicks this year.  He did miss a chunk of about 20 days this year due to injury.  He’s back, healthy and playing now.  His OPS is about .350 points better at home but it’s a decent .777 on the road.  Not good, but decent according to Mariner standards.  There are questions about Hicks and Marder’s defense this year.  They both seem to have their problems but that’s why in they’re both down in the minors, they can work on these things.  Their slash lines are good and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them is promoted to Jackson at some point.  With that said, I’m not blown away by either of them.

Brad Miller (SS) – .318/.415/.570, 9 HR, 2 3B, 14 2B, 29 RBI, 42/30 K/BB, .985 OPS, 9 SB.

Miller started the season on fire (not literally), and has put up pretty good numbers hitting in the first quarter of the season.  Continuing with the theme, his OPS is just under .500 points higher at home.  11 of his 14 doubles and 6 of his 9 home runs are at home, as well.  That’s not so encouraging.  He’s taken  lot of walks and has only increased that rate in the last few weeks.  He has struck out about 23% of the time.  Which isn’t nearly as bad as I thought it’d be.  I don’t know why I told you about all of that.  His defense has been terrible (17 errors) and he’s a prime target to move away from his current position.  I’ve read that centerfield may be an option and that’s where I’m hoping for.  Miller did have success in limited time in Clinton last year with his hitting, so there may be reason for continued optimism with this hitting.

Stefan Romero (3B) – .350/.374/.588, 8 HR, 2 3B, 14 2B, 37 RBI, 24/7 K/BB, .962 OPS.

Romero was drafted in the 12th round in 2010 by the M’s.  He hit pretty well last year in Clinton and ended up with a decent .803 OPS.  That’s okay for that ballpark.  Now, he’s upgraded ballparks and become an extra-base machine.  Thankfully, his home and road splits aren’t as drastic as the prospects before.  Romero has a .848 OPS on the road.  Half of his home runs have come on the road and while his home average is not sustainable (.397) he’s still hitting a perfectly adequate .313 away from the desert.  He’s not really walking.  That’s a bummer but when you’re hitting really well, walks aren’t a huge worry (see Kyle Seager).  His strikeouts aren’t very high either so that’s awesome.  Romero hasn’t just been a case of High Desert like some of these players have been. The guy can hit.  His fielding may come into question.  He reminds me quite a bit of Vinnie Catricala so far in his progression.

Julio Morban (OF) – .374/.425/.692, 8 HR, 2 3B, 6 2B, 28 RBI, 23/9 K/BB, .1.117 OPS.

Julio may be the surprise of the season.  It’s not that he isn’t talented.  He was a big bonus guy when he signed but he’s had tons of trouble staying healthy thus far.  He’s played regularly in the last month and has been, to borrow from Nick Holt, awesome.  Morban is still only 20 and has plenty of time left to develop.  Morban isn’t just a byproduct of playing at High Desert either.  In fact, he’s hitting better away from home (yahoo)!!  His OPS on the road is 1.288 compared to .958 at home.  He’s hitting better against lefties than he is righties (although, that’s a very small sample).  Morban is probably the surprise of the season.  If he keeps this up, to any extent, he will be moving up to Jackson and shooting up prospect lists in a hurry.

Jumping to the pitchers after the jump… There won’t be many of them.  There’s no one here that I really want to mention.  But, I’ll try to pull out a few.

Carson Smith (RP) – 2-1, 1 sv, 14 G, 6.00 ERA, 18 IP, 20 H, 12 ER, 15/14 K/BB

Now remember that hitters benefit and pitchers are hurt from High Desert.  Take Carson for example, he has a 9.72 ERA at home and a 2.79 ERA on the road.  I thought Smith would be starting this year and didn’t know he had been switched to relief until I was writing this.  His K/BB ratio is bad.  That probably doesn’t help with his ERA and he can’t blame High Desert for that.

Jonathan Arias (RP) – 2-2, 4 sv, 16 G, 6.26 ERA, 23 IP, 26 H, 16 ER, 27/6 K/BB.

Arias was a former catcher who strikes a lot of people out.  27 K’s in 23 innings is good.  So, how much is High Desert affecting him?  Not much, unfortunately.  While the strikeouts are good, he’s given up 8 homers (4 on the road and 4 at home).  He’ll have to cut down on the number of hits given up but at least he’s somewhat interesting because of the K/BB ratio.

Cameron Hobson (SP) – 2-7, 10 GS, 4.83 ERA, 54 IP, 55 H, 29 ER, 39/14 K/BB

Hobson started the year in Clinton and pitched better there but still, he wasn’t very good.  I was somewhat excited to see what Hobson would do this year because he was pretty awesome in limited time in Everett last year.  This year his strikeouts have gone down quite a ways and he’s giving up a lot of hits.  Now, unfortunately he’s in High Desert.  They usually don’t put good starting pitching prospects in High Desert because they want them to keep a tiny bit of self-esteem.

So, that’s all I’m going to do as far as the pitchers go.  Again, any questions ask in the comments.  Thanks for reading and I’ll get to Clinton shortly.

Andrew

Since the beginning of the season, Andrew Carraway (SP) and Stephen Pryor (RP) have moved up to Tacoma.  I covered them in my post about the Rainiers but they’ve been pretty awesome.  Chih-Hsien Chiang has also moved up to Tacoma since the beginning of the season, mostly due to injuries and not awesomeness.  Steven Proscia (3B) started out in High Desert as a guy to keep an eye on and he’s made his way up to Jackson.  He obviously excelled at High Desert but has struggled through his first few at-bats in AA.  He’s someone to keep an eye on though.  Otherwise, the other guys I highlighted in my seasoning opening post are still in Jackson.  Again, if there’s any questions about players (or anything else, leave them in the comments).  All stats are updated through Wednesday, lets start with position players (and go by position).

Rich Poythress (1B) – .259/.352/.375, 1 HR, 10 2B’s, 18 RBI’s, 14/16 K/BB, .727 OPS

Rich is currently on the 7-day DL but he should be back soon (it is only the seven-day DL).  Poythress hasn’t hit many home runs but he’s tied for the team lead in doubles.  Maybe he misses High Desert?  He’s a right-handed hitter and his OPS is over .500 points higher against left-handed pitching (although, small sample sizes).  His lone home run and 4 of his 10 doubles have come against left-handed pitching even though he’s only faced them 28 times compared to 84 at-bats against right-handers.  Obviously, his K/BB ratio is very good right now.  Keep that up, Rich!  Poythress had a great year in High Desert in 2010 but hasn’t done much in Jackson last year or this year.  The lefty-righty splits are interesting and could make him an interesting option as a platoon bat going forward.

Nick Franklin (SS) – .318/.373/.467, 2 HR, 10 2B’s, 14 RBI’s, 16/10 K/BB, .840 OPS.

Through the top three levels of the Mariners system there’s one position that is having a great amount of success hitting – shortstop.  That’s weird, now if only they could play defense.  Franklin is probably the best position player prospect in the Mariners system and he hasn’t disappointed thus far.  He’s hitting for a good average, a few more walks and homers would be nice but I won’t complain with these results.  He’s still only 21 and could see Tacoma by seasons end.  The one stat that is a bit scary… 7 errors.  This is a common theme among the systems shortstops.  Franklin has been dealing with a small, nagging foot injury.  That’s annoying but it’s not serious.

Francisco Martinez (3B, CF?) – .245/.317/.311, 0 HR, 8 2B’s, 1 3B, 9 RBI’s, 34/16 K/BB, .629 OPS, 14 SB.

Francisco hasn’t really hit.  Well, that’s not fair.  He’s done okay, just not very well.  He’s got 9 extra base hits which is 5th on the team.  Plus, he’s 14 of 16 in stolen bases.  The organization loves his speed and has been messing around with the idea of him playing center field.  Go for it!  We have terrible outfield prospects, do it!  Anyway, Martinez strikes out a ton, which is bad.  He’s always had a gaudy amount of strikeouts and this year has been no different.  If he could raise his contact rate, I’d be very interested in what Martinez could be.  For now, he just seems like a really fast guy.

Steven Proscia (3B) – .317/.348/.545, 8 HR, 9 2B’s, 25 RBI’s, 30/8 K/BB, .893 OPS.

These are Proscia’s combined numbers between High Desert and Jackson.  He’s had 24 at-bats since being called up to Jackson and only 4 hits.  3 of those hits have been home runs though.  That’s pretty neat.  You know what’s not neat?  Strikeouts.  Maybe our minor league team has been watching our major league team too much.  Proscia definitely has power and can get some extra base hits but he swings and misses too much.  If he could cut that down just a bit he could become a really interesting prospect like a few other third base prospects in the system.  Who would have thought the M’s most interesting position player prospects would be at SS and 3B.  Have the Mariners had a good shortstop since Carlos Guillen?  Have they ever had a good third baseman not named Beltre? Sorry Steve, this paragraph was supposed to be about you.  I forgot.  Strike out less and hit more!

Johermyn Chavez (RF) – .287/.357/.436, 3 HR’s, 6 2B’s, 10 RBI’s, 21/10 K/BB, .793 OPS.

Chavez has been hurt for the past few weeks but otherwise he’s been about what we expected.  He strikes out a lot but otherwise has put average numbers.  He’s another guy who had a great year at High Desert in 2010 but still hasn’t put it together in Jackson.

Joseph Dunigan (OF) – .303/.357/.568, 7 HR’s, 10 2B’s, 2 3B’s, 21 RBI’s, 38/9 K/BB, .925 OPS, 6 SB.

Power! Strikeouts…. Power!  I wouldn’t have guessed before the season that Dunigan would be the M’s outfield prospect who’s having the best season.  He’s 26, in AA, and was pretty crappy last year.  But, he has 19 extra base hits.  Double that and you have his strikeouts.  The strikeouts are the only thing that keep me from taking Dunigan very seriously.  He’s always had decent power, a bad average and a lot of strikeouts.  The average has improved but will it stay that way.  With 38 of his 133 at-bats ending in K’s I would guess no, but hopefully I’m wrong.  Thus far, he may be the biggest surprise of the season.  You go, Joe!  By the way, Dunigan has 19 extra base hits and only 21 RBI’s.  Is this normal?  It seems like that’s a lack of RBI’s or maybe I’m way off.

We get to the pitchers after the jump.  It’s all good news after the jump (well, mostly). Brandon Maurer (SP) – 2-0, 8 GS, 4.39 ERA, 41 IP, 47 H, 20 ER, 24/15 K/BB

Maurer had been the least successful pitcher in the Jackson rotation (which isn’t a burn at all) until Maurico Robles came down from Tacoma.  Maurer has always had trouble staying healthy, so it’s awesome that he’s already through 41 IP.  His strikeout numbers are pretty low, which is interesting because he has pretty good stuff (or did, I haven’t read anything that says his velocity is down or anything along those lines).  These numbers aren’t too bad or anything but they won’t move him up to Tacoma.  His last start he gave up 5 runs in 2 innings, but his 2 starts before that were his most successful so maybe he’s starting to get it going.

James Paxton (SP) – 3-2, 8 GS, 3.58 ERA, 37.2 IP, 28 H, 15 ER, 45/25 K/BB

The other day I was asked which one of the “Big 3″ was most major-league ready.  Before the start of the year, my answer would have been Paxton.  In fact, I was a bit surprised that Paxton wasn’t given more of a chance to earn a spot in the big league rotation.  Now, my answer would be Hultzen because of the amount of walks Paxton has given up.  25 BB in 37.2 innings is not going to fly in the majors no matter how good his stuff is.  His stuff is really good, by the way.  Disregarding the walks, everything is where M’s fans should want it to be.  He gives up less than a hit per inning and has more than one strikeout every inning.  The guy is good, he just needs to improve his control.

Danny Hultzen (SP) – 3-3, 7 GS, 1.91 ERA, 37.2 IP, 17 H, 8 ER, 36/23 K/BB

I did bag on Paxton for having control problems but Hultzen has had them this year as well.  He never struggled with this in college, where as Paxton has struggled with the walks, so I don’t foresee this being a huge problem going forward.  The reason why I’m a bit more confident in Hultzen at the moment is that he’s only given up 17 hits thus far.  That’s 11 less than Paxton in the same amount of innings.  He’s only given up 1 home run in his 7 starts (Paxton has given up 3) and he’s almost striking out a guy per inning.  Thursday he faces off against Trevor Bauer.  How would you like to be at that game?  Anyway, Hultzen looks good but could use a few less walks.

Taijuan Walker (SP) – 3-1, 7 GS, 1.83 ERA, 34.1 IP, 28 H, 7 ER, 35/11 K/BB

Taijuan is my favorite among the ‘Big 3′.  He’s the youngest, he may have the most electric arsenal, and is Jack Z’s current crowning achievement.  He hurt his foot or ankle in a start recently but it doesn’t appear to be serious and he should make his next start.  He’s given up quite a few more hits than Hultzen but makes up for it because he’s not walking many guys.  He strikes out more than 1 guys per inning and has only given up one home run in his 28 hits.  You would think the guy who is raw and was drafted out of high school would have more control problems but Walker throws strikes.  Maybe he is the most big league ready out of these 3, even at the age of 19.  He’ll be a top-10 (maybe 5) prospect in all of baseball over the winter if he keeps this up and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t pitch in Seattle next year.

Carter Capps (RP) – 1-2, 14 G, 2.45 ERA, 18.1 IP, 17 H, 5 ER, 25/4 K/BB

Once Pryor was called up to Tacoma Capps took over the closing job in Jackson.  They might need to start looking for another guy soon because there’s not a lot of reason to keep Capps in Jackson.  He touches 100 with his fastball and has just blown people away.  25 K’s in 18 innings shows that you may be a little too good for the league.  He’s kept his walk numbers down.  He’s given up 2 home runs if you’re looking for something to be picky about but don’t bother worrying about that.  Get used to hearing “Pryor and Capps” because they’ll be coming out of the Mariners bullpen soon and often.

We’ll move on to High Desert in a couple of days (or maybe next week, if I don’t get to it before I leave town this weekend).  Enjoy the sunshine and go M’s!

Andrew

Right now, Seager is sitting on a .295/.313/.491 slash line.  He’s already accumulated 1.4 WAR, which feels like it would have led the team last year, although it wouldn’t really have.  I don’t think.  Man, the offense was bad last year.  He has 4 homers and has ripped the ball pretty consistently.  He’s probably not ever going to have Evan Longoria power or anything like that at the hot corner, but he’s already showing more pop than anyone projected.

Even with the hot start, I’ve heard and read a few people who are unsure what to make of him.  The two main concerns I’ve heard are that he’s not likely to improve and that he’s too impatient.  Let’s tackle these questions head on!  I usually procrastinate and try to work around problems, so I have no idea how this will go, but it’s going to be exciting.

First is the question of whether he can improve, or if 2012 Kyle Seager is pretty much the best player he can ever be.  I don’t have any good data to back up my position, but I think that argument is ridiculous.  Of course he can get better!  He’s in his first full year in the majors and he’s 24.  It would be strange for him to not improve.  I’m not saying that it’s a guarantee that he’ll improve.  Plenty of young players bomb out after a hot start, and on occasion they do arrive as the exact player they’ll remain for their careers.  Anyone arguing that Seager won’t improve will have to provide a lot better argument than any I’ve yet heard, however.

Part of the argument I did hear is that Seager’s frame is slight, meaning he’s unlikely to add a great deal more muscle to jump to another level of power.  That’s possible, but considering he’s already hitting for significantly more power than anyone projected, it seems foolhardy to write off the possibility of more.  Seager has an immense talent for squaring up pitches, which is a huge part of hitting for power.  Seattle Sports Insider had a few posts a while back about Seager where they pointed out that players who pulled fly balls tend to be quite successful.  Seager does this with regularity, but he also has the talent and hitting ability to hit the ball with power up the middle or to left, as well.  He’s not Jose Lopez.  His talents match perfectly with Safeco’s short right field and big gaps in left and left center.  He may not hit it as far as Josh Hamilton, but for someone with his amount of power, he’s a perfect fit at Safeco.

The more realistic and common concern is that Seager never walks.  This year his walk rate is at 2.6% through 30 games played.  Miguel Olivo was 2.4% last season, for comparison.  2.6% is indisputably low, but the question is how important that is.  Since the rise of Moneyball and the increased importance given to on-base percentage, it’s become conventional wisdom that walks are a necessary part of a successful offensive attack.  They probably are, but the problem is that walks aren’t something a batter can generate on his own.  Anyone going up to home plate against Doug Fister looking for a walk and a walk only is probably going to strike out.  That approach will work on occasion against some pitchers, but walks are a byproduct of a patient approach, not the desired result.

As a side note, that is why I was okay with Eric Wedge stressing aggressiveness last year.  It led to quick outs, but it’s also necessary to get players into an attacking mindset.  The Mariners can’t be passive.  They need to make things happen, and they need to be looking for their moments.  The challenge comes this year and in future years as they try to balance that aggressiveness with patience in waiting for the right pitch to hit, and if it never comes, then taking that walk.  That’s what good players do.  Some players skew more towards the walks side, like Angels-era Chone Figgins.  Others attack more, like Vlad Guerrero as an extreme example (that’s a bad example, as he was able to hit anything, but I can’t think of anything better right now).  Some guys work it to a science where they either do damage with a hit or they walk.  Think Barry Bonds or Edgar.  Moving on.

Kyle Seager’s low walk rate could worry me for two reasons, at least that I can think of right now: if he were swinging at too many bad pitches and/or if he were striking out too much.  He’s not swinging at too many bad pitches.  So far, he’s swinging at 30.6% of pitches outside of the zone, which is less than a percentage point above the league average.  He can certainly do better in this, but to call it a major shortcoming of his approach would be too dramatic.

Regarding the strikeouts, those aren’t a problem right now either.  His strikeout rate is 13.9%, which isn’t absurdly low or anything, but it’s definitely well below average.  The necessary result of a low K rate is that he’s either walking a ton or he’s hitting everything.  We’ve ruled out the walks, so we know that Seager’s making a lot of contact.  The numbers bear it out, as all of his contact rates, overall and in and out of zone, are well above average.  Seager swings a lot, and he hits pretty much everything, and generally he hits it fairly hard and in the air.  Except for the flyball part, he’s sort of like old Ichiro.

Seager is not really swinging at pitches out of the zone, at least not to the extent that it’s going to kill him.  He’s hitting the ball pretty well.  He’s not drawing any walks.  He’s not striking out too much.  Where does that leave us?  Stealing another thought from SSI, it would seem that Seager’s not getting many balls thrown to him outside the strike zone.  Part of this is undoubtedly because he hits everything at which he swings, which prevents the count from getting very deep.  Another part could well be that the word on him hasn’t gotten around yet, and pitchers are still challenging the rookie.  I would imagine that he’s going to see a lot more pitchers going out of the zone in the next month or two, and the true test for Seager will be how he reacts to that.

Vlad Guerrero’s are few and far between.  No matter how good of contact a player makes, they’re going to make more outs when they swing at pitches outside the strike zone.  Seager’s already shown the ability to make adjustments.  He started out pulling everything, and in recent weeks he’s sent a few doubles to left center.  We’ll see what he does as he starts to see fewer strikes.  It’s possible that he has a bad eye at the plate, but right now I don’t think we can say that.  The answers should come later.  Right now, Seager is just a guy who is attacking every pitch that comes at him, usually with solid results.  It’s not his fault that he hits pretty much everything in the strike zone.  We’ll see if he has the ability to pass on the balls out of the zone.  I bet he does.  If so, the walks will start to pile up in a hurry.  The other adjustment we’ll likely see at some point is that he’ll stalk his pitches in the zone a bit more.  Just because it’s a strike doesn’t mean it’s the best pitch at which to swing, and Seager has to start being selective in the zone as well as out of it if he wants to jump to the next level.

It remains to be seen whether he’ll make those adjustments, but keep in mind he’s still in his first full year.  He has lots of time.  Maybe he’ll become more patient and be a star, and maybe he won’t, but there’s no sense or basis for making a judgement on his career or writing him off yet.  He’ll be what he’ll be, but we won’t know what it is until he gets there.

-Matthew

Young ‘uns sounds like onions.  I guess a good share of the time young ‘uns smell bad.  That’s like onions.  Young ‘uns have layers, so do onions.  The people I’m talking about in this post play a game with a ball and an onion has roughly the same shape as a baseball.  How’s that for an intro!

Today, we head down the I-5 South to our friends in Tacoma.  Unless you live in Maple Valley or Yakima like a good share of the writers and readers of this blog do.  If that’s the case don’t take I-5 South because it won’t get you to where you want to be.  You’ll get lost. I’ve really gotten a long ways in this posts two paragraphs.

The mascot doesn’t even want to cheer for the Rainiers. In their defense, eagles are really cool.

Anyway, the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners’ AAA affiliate) have gotten off to a rough start this season.  This is because, to be honest, they aren’t very good.  They probably aren’t the best team in the Mariners minor league system even though they are at the highest level.  The Rainiers are 11-22 (this doesn’t include tonight’s game or stats).  Their pitching has been atrocious, which isn’t that strange for the PCL (the league they play in, and the hitting hasn’t been at the level I thought it’d be.

Since the beginning of the season a few things have happened that have been significant to the team.  Carlos Peguero, who started the season on fire, injured himself (not from being on fire) and was out most of the last month.  To take his spot, the Mariners promoted AA Jackson outfielder Chih-Hsien Chiang to Tacoma.  So, Chiang has been playing there for about a month.  Andrew Carraway, who’s a starting pitcher, was just promoted to Tacoma today after tearing up the AA Southern League (more on him in a minute).  Erasmo Ramirez was sent down from Seattle to become a starter and relievers Shawn Kelley and Charlie Furbush have gone up to Seattle.  Maurico Robles was sent down to AA.  Stephen Pryor, reliever extraordinaire, has been sent up to Tacoma because he’s awesome.  Also, catcher Adam Moore was injured and will be hurt for the rest of his life (I hope not, but it seems this way).  Those are probably the most important transactions that have gone on with the Rainiers this year.  If I’m missing anything, hopefully someone will add it.

Here are the players I told you to keep an eye on and what they’ve been doing (I’ll just go position-by-position):

Luis Jiminez (DH, 1B, LF?) – .310/.409/.575 (these 3 numbers are batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage in that order), 7 HR, 9 2B’s, 23 RBI’s, 20/19 K/BB, .984 OPS.

Jiminez is 30.  I hesitated in including him because this guy isn’t a prospect and probably won’t ever play a role in Seattle.  I did include him because he’s been the Rainiers best hitter, excluding the guy who’s only played 6 games.  Jiminez has been thrown in to left field once or twice which is interesting.  If he is adequate there (which I doubt he is), he might play a few games in Seattle’s revolving left field door.  Otherwise don’t expect to ever hear about this guy in Seattle.  He seems like a good guy though.

Carlos Triunfel (SS) – .280/.338/.488, 5 HR, 7 2B’s, 2 3B’s, 16 RBI’s, 25/8 K/BB, .826 OPS.

Triunfel has quietly put together a solid showing in the last year of minor league ball.  The former top prospect still doesn’t hold the appeal he once had but is hitting for power right now.  There are still plenty of questions about his defense and his high K rate but he’s hitting the ball hard, especially in the last couple of weeks.  If he keeps it up, it’s hard not to wonder if his bat is more valuable than Ryan’s glove.  Admittedly, we’re still a few months away from having to seriously ponder those questions but it’s fun to think about while Triunfel is doing well.

Vinnie Catricala (3B) – .219/.273/.281, 1 HR, 5 2B’s, 19 RBI’s, 18/8 K/BB, .555 OPS.

From a mild, pleasant surprise to an extreme disappointment.  After hitting everything he saw in spring training, Vinnie the Cat hasn’t done much of anything in Tacoma.  He had a good week 2 weeks ago but otherwise has been very quiet.  Catricala has been the best hitter in the system for the last couple of years and there’s not a lot of reason to believe that he won’t start hitting but until he does, remain nervous.  The Mariners could really use him to be good.

Chih-Hsien Chiang (RF) – .272/.300/.333, 1 HR, 4 2B’s, 7 RBI’s, 15/5 K/BB, .633 OPS.

Chiang’s batting average is decent but 26 of his 31 hits have gone for singles.  That’s not fun.  He isn’t walking very much.  Before coming in the Erik Bedard trade last year he was killing the ball and hitting for a good amount of power.  Where did that go, Chih-Hsien?  It’d be cool if it came back.

Trayvon Robinson (OF) – .263/.320/.414, 3 HR, 9 2B’s, 1 3B, 14 RBI’s, 34/12 K/BB, .733 OPS.

This is much more interesting than Chiang.  Some of it is interesting in a good way, some not.  The extra base power is great.  Unlike Chiang, Trayvon has 13 extra base hits in his 35 hits.  Not to mention, he’s a better athlete and fielder.  But, look at those strikeouts.  34 strikouts in 133 at-bats isn’t good and his contact rate is something he’s always struggled with.  He may be the best outfield prospect in the system (not saying much) but until he cuts down on the K’s he probably won’t cut it in the majors.

Carlos Peguero has a 1.847 OPS which is awesome but he’s only had 15 at-bats so I don’t think I’ll include him.  He does have 4 extra base hits in those at-bats so that’s almost as many as Chiang has had in 114 at-bats.  Yikes.

Breaking down the pitchers after the jump.  Proceed with caution.  Forrest Snow (SP) – 0-3, 7 GS, 7.57 ERA, 35.2 IP, 38 H, 30 R, 34/23 K/BB.

Not so good.  At the start of the year, I thought Forrest Snow could add to the depth the Mariners have in their 4th/5th starter types but this start hasn’t brought much confidence.  The PCL isn’t an easy place to pitch and he might be having some bad luck.  He still has an 8.6 K/9 innings rate but his walks are way up.  His K/BB rate right now is at 1.48 and historically it’s been right around 3 K/BB.  We can hope that comes down and I think it will.  He’s getting hit hard though and did last year in Tacoma too.  He was drafted in the 36th round and maybe this just isn’t going to work out.  But, he’s got an awesome name and went to U-Dub.

Chance Ruffin (RP) – 0-4, 13 G, 9.00 ERA, 19 IP, 21 H, 19 ER, 14/11 K/BB.

Oh dear.  I thought Chance Ruffin was going to make the Mariners out of spring training.  Now he’s just laughing at me.  His strikeouts are way down, his walks are way up and giving up a run per inning isn’t a good thing.  I haven’t read anything about something being wrong with him or his velocity being down but maybe something will come up soon.  He seemed like a pretty sure thing when he came over from Detroit and would be a good relief pitcher for the team in the future.  Right now, that seems to be up in the air.

Andrew Carraway (SP) – 4-0, 7 GS, 2.61 ERA, 38 IP, 37 H, 11 ER, 32/7 K/BB. (Stats from AA Jackson Generals, called up to Tacoma today).

As you can see, Carraway had success in Jackson.  In fact, he may have been the most successful player in that rotation which is really saying something.  Now, he moves up to a league that hits a lot better.  Andrew throws a ton of strikes and doesn’t have a huge strikout rate.  Will he be Anthony Vasquez, Blake Beavan or Doug Fister?  From what I’ve read, he’ll be one of those outcomes as a pitch-to-contact type of guy.

Stephen Pryor (RP) – 1-0, 12 G, 1.06 ERA, 17 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 26/5 K/BB (AA and AAA combined).

Pryor started in Jackson and then was promoted due to awesomeness.  His fastball is high 90′s with a good slider and seems to strike out everyone.  His K/9 rate is at 13.8 and his K/BB is 5.20 right now.  Going forward we’ll have to keep watching his walk totals but as for now they’re great.  If he keeps this up in Tacoma we could see him in Seattle by the all-star break.  His stuff is off the charts right now.

That’s about it for Tacoma.  They don’t have a lot of prospects that I’m truly interested in.  I’ll get to the Jackson team soon, and then I’ll write about the entire team or so it seems.

Thanks for reading,

Andrew

The Hot Sheet isn’t a weekly reranking of the best prospects in baseball, as the introduction points out.  It’s just a ranking of which guys had the best week in the minors, with the selection skewed heavily towards guys who are actual prospects.  You won’t see many guys in their late 20′s, except maybe in the “Man Among Boys” category.

Yesterday’s Hot Sheet was the fourth of the year.  The first two contained Mariners prospects, the last two haven’t.  Going by memory, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and Brad Miller have all made appearances, and I think Nick Franklin might have snuck into the “Team Photo”.

There’s nothing too revelatory in this post.  I just wanted to pass along the link.  The Hot Sheet and chat is a good way to get to know prospects throughout baseball and keep up on who’s having a good year.

Talking quickly about the Mariners minors, all the talk has been about Double-A Jackson, which BA called the most talented team in the minors.  The Mariners top three prospects, pitchers Walker, Hultzen and Paxton are all there and have been dominant for the most part.  Paxton’s had occasional control issues, but overall they’ve been about everything anyone could have hoped for.  Hultzen is on pace to see Seattle this year.  Walker is probably ready, but I’m betting they hold off given his youth.  Paxton has more to iron out, but once he does, he might have the most big league ready game of the three.

Nick Franklin’s having a solid year, and Francisco Martinez and Denny Almonte, two toolsy and talented guys with lots of questions, are off to decent starts.  The guys at High-A High Desert are hitting the ball like crazy, as usual, but it’s still pretty early to get hopes up or down about anyone in particular.  Vinnie Catricala, in Tacoma, has had a terrible start to the year, but he recently went 4-5 with a homer and a double, I think, so hopefully he’s turning things around.  He’s the best bet for a guy to come up and hit later this season.

One other thing to think about is the upcoming draft, now about a month away.  The Mariners hold the third pick.  Most don’t see this as an overly deep draft, but they only have to find one guy, and scouting director Tom McNamara and company have proven themselves pretty good at that.  The popular contenders to be Mariners right now are high school CF Byron Buxton, college catcher Mike Zunino, or one of a slew of college pitchers between which I can’t really distinguish and won’t name right now.

Buxton is considered the top guy, a toolsy speedster with good hitting ability and the likelihood to develop above average power.  He’s similar to Bubba Starling, whom I wanted the Mariners to take last year, but might be a little more talented with the bat at this point.  Zunino is considered as close to a sure thing as the draft gets at catcher.  He might not be at the Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Matt Wieters level of prospect, but I’ve heard him described as a better hitting Jason Varitek, which is pretty valuable.  There’s also high school shortstop Carlos Correa from Puerto Rico.  He’s likely to end up at third base.  I don’t generally like the typical Latin American hitter template (free swinger, bad strike zone management), but he sounds pretty talented.

At this point, I’m hoping the Mariners take Buxton or Zunino, mostly because they still need bats and pitching is getting boring.  The Mariners know a lot more than I do, though, and I’m happy with whomever they decide is the best pick.

We’ll have more on the draft as it gets closer.  For now, enjoy your weekend.  Maybe the Mariners will finally win a game!

-Matthew

When it was decided that he would move to third in the order, a lot was made of how he would have to change his approach to hit with more authority.  Fans talked about it, Wedge acknowledged it, Ichiro even came to camp with a revamped swing.  A month into the season, he’s pretty much back to his old swing, and going by what I heard on the radio today, people think that he’s pretty much the same old Ichiro.

I guess if you thought he was going to turn into Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn or something, then he hasn’t changed that much.  If you’re a little more realistic and look into the numbers a bit deeper, we’re seeing a changed Ichiro.  First of all, he’s rebounded significantly from last season.  There’s plenty of time left for numbers to go south, of course, but he’s been worth 1.0 wins above replacement* already this year, coming into tonight’s game.  Last year, he was worth 0.2 for the whole year.  WAR can go backward if Ichiro were to go in the tank, but right now he’s on pace for one of his better seasons.

*If you’re unfamiliar with WAR, it’s a stat designed to incorporate all aspects of the game to accurately compare players across positions.  The idea is that there’s a baseline level of production that any generic triple-A player could provide, or any player that could be obtained without much trouble, who is considered the “replacement-level” player.  Offense and defense are then measured against that replacement level, with an adjustment given depending on how difficult a position you play.  It adds up throughout the year (think home runs instead of batting average).  2-3 WAR is pretty average production, above 6 or so and you’re thinking about MVP consideration.  I have some issues with how it values and measures defense, and I think actual replacement players are kind of rare, but as a way to compare players, it’s a great tool.

The picture of Ichiro at bat has always been the guy who swung at whatever he wanted, slashing the ball around the infield and using his speed to reach base.  He’d mix in the occasional drive to the outfield, and walks were an uncommon occurrence.  His walk rate hasn’t changed much.  In fact, it’s decreased a bit so far, as has his strikeout rate.  For that matter, most of his stats aren’t terribly different from his career averages thus far.  What’s different is how he’s getting to that point.  Ichiro’s always hit a lot of groundballs, by design.  In 2004, his best year, his GB to flyball rate was 3.55, with groundballs 63.7% of the time.  This year his GB/FB rate is 1.68, by far the lowest of his career.  What’s even more encouraging is that his line drive rate is 28.6%, again the best of his career and among the league leaders.  He’s essentially cut his ground balls and replaced them with line drives and a few more fly balls.

Line drives are the optimal outcome, with ground balls usually leading to more hits and fly balls to more power, obviously.  So why hasn’t Ichiro been even more productive?  Well, to my eyes and limited analyzing skills, it’s a combination of things.  I don’t know that Ichiro’s skill set is perfectly suited to fewer ground balls.  He just doesn’t have the power to run huge home run to fly ball ratios like true power hitters do, and he doesn’t even have the power to get those line drives and fly balls to doubles as often as we’d like.  That being said, I’m betting that if he keeps hitting the ball like he is now, he’ll find more holes than he has.  Luck hasn’t been good to the Mariners in recent years, and I’m betting it’s to blame here too.  Hopefully it’ll change, but who really knows.  Just remember that even at the rate at which he’s currently producing, Ichiro’s in for a good year.

Ichiro’s clearly looking to put the ball in the air more often, but that’s not all that’s changed about his approach at the plate.  I mentioned that his walk rate is down, so it would seem he’s swinging at more pitches outside the zone.  He is, compared to his best years, but he’s swinging at a lot fewer than the past two years.  He’s also making a lot more contact outside the zone, which would suggest he’s swinging at fewer of the really bad pitches that we’ve seen Ichiro chop at in the past.  Maybe not, but that would be my guess, and my eyes seem to agree.  He’s also making contact at an improved rate with pitches in the zone.  Basically he’s hitting everything he swings at, and he’s hitting them for a lot more line drives and fly balls than in the past.

So, what’s the takeaway from all this?  I’d say Ichiro’s being more selective and is trying to drive the ball more.  He’s having decent success, although not as much as anyone would like.  It could be he just doesn’t have the power for this approach, or it could be he’s been unlucky and his production will increase from here on.  Best case would probably be that he gets red hot soon from more line drives falling in and more fly balls going for extra bases, pitchers notice and start pitching around him, and he starts getting more walks to go with his line drives.

The changes in Ichiro aren’t extremely noticeable because they haven’t led to dramatically different results thus far.  It’s been said for so long that Ichiro has this power that he can summon at any time that I think many people were expecting 20 home runs all of a sudden.  That’s not likely to ever happen.  He is different, though.  The question now is whether it will have any dramatic effect on his production on the field.  Of course, even at this rate, Ichiro is the least of the Mariners’ worries on offense.  He might not be vintage 2004 Ichiro, but he’s not far off.  Most importantly, 2012 has been a return to form thus far, and that’s all we really should have been hoping for.  Ichiro isn’t Barry Bonds, but he is Ichiro, and that’s plenty good enough for me.

-Matthew

That being said, the draft and its bloggers have given us at least two pieces of greatness:

First we have new Seahawk quarterback Russell Wilson and his wife.  Mostly his wife.  This is somewhere between scary and awesome, but I hope she’s a permanent fixture on Seahawk telecasts.

And here are first round reactions in GIFs.  So good.  This is my favorite thing I’ve seen on the internet all month.  Maybe all year.  Edit- I didn’t realize he’s gone through the third round.  Make sure you at least scroll down to the Bryan Anger pick at #70. Enjoy!

-Matthew

I don’t remember the order of everything that happened, so you’ll have to read Geoff Baker’s game story if you want that, but there were a lot of memorable moments.  Jesus Montero hit a homer to left center with an apparently cracked bat.  Casper Wells ripped a double to right center to tie the game.  Ichiro threw a rocket home to get a third out and keep the game tied.  There were two errors at first on pickoff attempts, one by Wilhelmsen that contributed to the Blue Jays taking a 5-3 lead in the eighth.  The other was by Toronto’s catcher and went clear to the right field corner.  Kawasaki was on the ground for 5 seconds before he noticed the error and still made it to third easily.  Then Jaso, pinch hitting with two outs in the ninth, singled him home.  Colby Rasmus lucked into a barehand stop while diving to keep it from going for an inside the park homerun.  Ackley was thrown out at home on an ill-fated attempt to score.

After some nice work by the bullpen to take it to extras, it was Michael Saunders time.  He had already slugged a homer in the ninth to start the inning.  In the tenth, after Smoak, Montero and Liddi all reached base, The Condor stepped in with one out and a lefty on the hill.  One swing later, on a lefty slider no less, Saunders hit a towering fly that carried and carried until it eventually dropped over the right field fence for a grand slam.  Brandon League shut the door and the Mariners had their most memorable win of a young season.  I just reread this paragraph and I did a terrible job communicating how exciting this was.  I’m usually pretty quiet watching games, especially since I’ve had a cold all week, and I yelled at least three times.  This felt like some moment of destiny, a little gift saying, “Here, remember how great baseball is?  Don’t give up!”

This is finally starting to feel like a new era.  The Mariners are 11-10.  I’m not expecting them to contend this year.  I’ll be very happy if they finish at .500.  The Mariners are almost entirely youth now, so winning means that these players we’re banking on are starting to come through.  They’re still going to struggle at times.  Some guys are not going to stick.  This season is still about figuring out who’s a part of the future, about giving the young guys time to develop and mature.  That’s what’s important.  Wins are icing on the cake, and yet they’re necessary to gain any good feeling about this team.  It’s important that they win while doing developing guys.  You don’t want to develop losers.  Players have to learn to win, and they have to develop to the point where they are good enough to win.  It’s a weird circle that’s hard to get into, which is why so many teams are constantly bad and rebuilding.

Winning is a sign that they’re performing, but it also puts them in the habit of winning.  I’ve been on teams, and watched teams, that expected to win every time they took the field.  Sometimes it’s because the talent is superior, sometimes there’s something magical about it; the best and most memorable (2001 M’s, Tuiasosopo Huskies) are a combination of both.  It always starts with winning though.  You don’t learn to win by losing.  That’s why you can’t completely write off a season, even if you’re rebuilding, and why it’s so hard and dangerous to go without any veterans, even if that veteran is Miguel Olivo.  I have no idea if the Mariners will ever get to that point of expecting to win, but nights like tonight remind what it feels like.  This is a team of likeable, competetive guys.  They have talent, and for the first time in a while, they’re starting to have personality.  There will be some tough nights in Texas in July, but take tonight as a sign that we’re going to have plenty of fun this summer and for a long time to come.

-Matthew