Then it came.  It’s still a mystery, even to this storyteller, how bullies pick their victims.  Edward wasn’t as popular as others but he was a loyal friend.  His family wasn’t as rich as others but wasn’t as poor as others either.  I guess Edward just fell through the cracks.

You couldn’t blame all of Edward’s pain on the bully at first.  Edward put himself in a bad situation.  He drank way too much coffee, which for some reason became a point of ridicule.  He traded his baseball cards with the wrong person (don’t even get me started on the guy on the other side of the trades, Ike).  He tried to stop the bullying before it began but didn’t put his whole heart into it, thinking it would just go away.  Sure, he appealed to his teachers.  They said to just ignore it and things would go back to normal.  He appealed to his friends.  They too, grew scared and didn’t invest their time anymore.

Once the bullying had taken place for a few weeks, Edward felt empty.  That emptiness lasted for six months.  Six long, hard months.  Chuck across the street wasn’t doing well, and that didn’t help take away any of his agony.  There were new guys who moved in, Pete and Paul, but they didn’t stop the bullying.  They just gave very brief moments of joy when their families got together on Sunday.  Six months are a long time for anyone, especially for someone who had grown so used to a pleasant life.

In that six month, something changed in Edward.  A lot of the change came because of his dad’s recent promotion.  This caused a big bump in Edward’s allowance.  He ran for student body President and surprisingly the school got behind him, electing him and giving him power.  This didn’t stop the bully, but the bully grew concerned.  Edward’s confidence was growing every day.

Finally, he made a deal with the bully.  He offered him money and tried to get him to back off.  Edward just wanted to feel whole again.  The bully would tell him he’d consider it.  The bully thought, “Well, maybe I can just get that same amount of money from someone else and still push Edward around.”

See, this bully was condescending.  He pushed more kids around than just Edward, although Edward was the only one he didn’t call a friend.  These other kids he considered his friends, it’s hard to say if they felt the same in return. The bully’s name was Joel.

Joel made Edward swear to silence while he worked to find another deal.  Joel worked closely with his friend Maurice.  Maurice was making a power play.  He matched the money Edward had put forward to try to climb the social structure of the fourth grade.  Maurice felt like he was a bit lost and he thought he could regain his sense of self by gaining more power.  No one can blame Maurice for trying.  No one deserves to feel empty.  Maurice did step over the line.  He told classmates ”Edward isn’t a loyal friend, I am.”  He had a fetish for whales and was making promises that he couldn’t keep, without a minor miracle.  Edward couldn’t offer a rebuttal in fear of screwing things up with Joel.  He was sworn to silence.

Word eventually leaked out that Joel was going to side with Maurice.  Edward was still going to be the victim.

Edward did what he had to do.  He offered the bully more money.  What other choice did he have?  There wasn’t going to be a friend that all of a sudden moved to his neighborhood in two months to make him feel better.  Edward offered a lot of money.  Maurice couldn’t match that offer.

Joel still will probably choose Maurice.  Edward is just trying to show him that he means business.

Joel doesn’t really care about his other friends all that much.  Sure, they help him out a lot but he’s got to keep his reputation up as a tough guy.  Joel needs Edward.  He needs someone to pick on.  Joel will move away in a few years.  Until that day, he’s the bully no matter how much money Edward offers.

- Andrew

Now, people are worried about where this core will play.  There are three shortstops in the Mariners’ farm system whom most Mariner fans would rather have with the team than Robert Andino.  Robert Andino is bad at baseball.  All of these players have questions about their defense.  Nick Franklin doesn’t have range.  Carlos Triunfel lacks consistency.  Brad Miller made more errors last season than I did in my first two years of little league (he has since improved).  All of these guys could probably play second pretty effectively but you already have an above-average glove there in Dustin Ackley.  Ackley isn’t hitting very well right now but the organization will not, and should not give up on him.  I haven’t even mentioned Stefen Romero, who is a right-handed slugger who can cover second, third, or left field.  Franklin and Triunfel could probably play some third but most of their experience is at second and short.  Plus, you have Kyle Seager there who is good with the glove and is the best hitter on the Mariners.  Oh, did I mention Seager can play second?  Wait, what about Mike Zunino?  The catcher of the future who is in triple-A learning how to hit a breaking ball.  While he’s not knocking on the door as loudly as Franklin, Zunino will be getting time in the majors next season, if not before.  Wait!  Where does that leave Jesus Montero, the bat-first catcher who hasn’t played as well as we’d all like but is still only 22 and has enough raw strength to entrance the casual baseball watcher.  Confused yet?  Here, this is an easier way to look at it..

Second Base:
Dustin Ackley (In the majors, also played outfield and first in college)
Nick Franklin (AAA, can also play shortstop)
Carlos Triunfel (AAA, can also play shortstop)
Kyle Seager (In the majors, everyday starter at third)
Stefen Romero (AAA, can also play third and LF

Shortstop:
(Currently manned by Robert Andino and Brendan Ryan in the majors.  Ryan may stick around for a while but if Andino doesn’t hit he could be gone by the end of this coming road-trip)
Nick Franklin (AAA)
Carlos Triunfel (AAA)
Brad Miller (AA, may be able to play second or third.  Mostly groomed as a shortstop though)

Third:
Kyle Seager (Majors)
Stefen Romero (AAA)

Catcher:
(Currently manned by Jesus Montero and, for some reason, Kelly Shoppach in a 50/50 split of playing time)
Jesus Montero (Majors, can also play SS… Just kidding)
Mike Zunino (AAA)
John Hicks (AA, although he’s still a ways off)

In case you weren’t doing the math, that’s 9 players for 4 positions (although Hicks is a bit of a stretch).  All of these players, besides Hicks, will probably see the majors by the end of next year.  Everyone but Miller will probably see it long before then.  Even a beaver wouldn’t know what to do with this many logs.

I have two disclaimers, then a solution.

First disclaimer:  Carlos Triunfel probably isn’t a Major League starter.  He could develop into one but at this point I don’t see him more than a good utility guy.  I have no doubt that if the Mariners called him up tomorrow he’d be more effective than Andino.  In fact, he’d be the first person I’d call up out of all the young guys to fill that exact role, but I don’t think the answer is to start him at shortstop.  Give him a few games a week at short.  Once in a while at second, but I don’t think he will be an everyday starter in the long run (although at this point, anyone would hit better than the Mariners shortstop tandem).

Second disclaimer:  Not all of these guys will work out.  If there is anything the past few years should have taught you, as a Mariner fan, it’s that prospects aren’t always going to work out.  Yes, Nick Franklin has an OPS over 1.000 in Tacoma right now.  I’m as excited about that as anyone but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be an all-star. Prospects always flop.  The Mariners will be doing well if 6 of these guys work out as average or above-average major league players.  All nine will not work out.  I repeat, all nine will not work out.

The solution:  Baseball works on many old precedents that were once set, but don’t need to be there.  One of those precedents is that a player needs a set position.  Sure, every now and then you’ll get a Ben Zobrist who can play everywhere and do it well but that’s not common through the course of baseball history.  Utility guys are usually made to be utility guys because they can’t hit, not because they are good at defense.  But, Jack Z has put together a farm system full of Zobrist’s (some may be better hitters, some might be worse).  There are a group full of players who will soon be Mariners that have positional flexibility, the organization needs to take advantage of this instead of letting it hinder them.

Maybe Stefen Romero plays left field and spells Ackley and Seager at second and third from time to time.  Maybe Franklin plays short but also covers second while Ackley plays a day in left when the M’s want to get more lefties in the lineup.

The notion exists that players are more comfortable with a set position.  I get that and if that’s actually true then leave them there.  If Ackley says that he would be best sticking at second then leave him there, no questions asked.  But, wouldn’t it make sense that switching positions every few days would keep a young guy more focused? Maybe I’m taking crazy pills but that idea doesn’t seem far off to me.  The Mariners have Franklin, Triunfel, and Romero in AAA who are used to switching positions quite often.  Take advantage of it.

Sure, it’s a little frustrating that all of the Mariners good hitting prospects tend to play the same position.  We could really use a guy in center, right or first.  But, organizational depth isn’t a problem, it’s how you make a good team.  The Mariners will soon have a chance to use a group of really good prospects.  I say that they make this happen however they can.

Much of the lamenting has centered around the continued failure of the team’s supposed future, namely Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero.  I’m not going to argue for Smoak and Montero, at least not right now, but Ackley’s demise might be greatly misstated.  Or at least, his resurgence has been somewhat unnoticed.

Right now, Ackley is sitting on a .253/.284/.286 line. That’s not good, although the batting average is about 30 points higher than last year. His OPS+, which merely compares his OPS (.570) to league average, is 65.  League average is 100, so he’s been 35% worse than average.  

Now, time for fun with numbers and random cutoff points!  Ackley started this season as cold as Antarctica.  After seven games, he had two hits and two walks.  If we take out those seven games, he’s batting .310.  The OPS is still only .681, which isn’t good, but I’ll talk more about that below. If we look at roughly the last two weeks, starting April 17th, the line jumps to .383/.396/.447.  Those numbers over a full season would be phenomenal and beyond any hopes we could have.

Picking starting and ending points like I just did is risky analysis, so I make no guarantees on anything here.  It’s certainly possible Ackley is just on a hot streak and he will soon plummet Smoak-style.  It’s also possible the first week or two was a terrible cold streak and the .310 BA is more realistic.  Arbitrary date selection isn’t great, but it doesn’t automatically make a more hopeful interpretation illegitimate.

More interesting is the disparity in the stats.  The batting average is great, but his on-base and slugging percentages still lag.  Once the benchmark of offensive stats, batting average has fallen out of favor of late.  OBP and slugging are more comprehensive, and more advanced stats go even further.  Right now, everything Ackley is doing is batting average driven, and within that, it’s all singles-driven.  He has three walks and three doubles, and 23 singles.

The scouting report on Ackley has always been he’s an elite contact hitter with a great eye and solid gap power.  After fixing some mechanical issues dating back to last season, the contact skills seem to be on the rebound.  He’s hitting the ball hard to all fields again and rolling over on pitches less.  His plate discipline is hard to wade through.  His swing rates are roughly the same as ever, although he’s swinging at pitches outside of the zone a bit more.  That might be a good thing, as part of Ackley’s problem has been a stubborness in not swinging at borderline pitches.  It hasn’t worked out well, so a slightly more aggressive approach might help.  He’s making a little better contact in all facets this year, so something’s working.

The biggest concern with Ackley is the lack of both walks and power.  I would bet the two are related.  There’s no reason for pitchers to go outside the zone when they still have last year’s scouting report and he’s only hitting singles thus far.  Add in that Ackley makes contact with almost everything, and pitchers are going to have to work hard to walk him.  That’ll change if he keeps hitting like this, but the process would be helped greatly (as would his production) if more of his singles start going for extra bases.  Pitchers are going to challenge him until he does some damage.

Dustin Ackley is on a singles streak, which is great and gives hope for the future.  But he won’t continue to hit nearly .400, and he will need to do more than hit singles to really make an impact.  Walks and at least gap power need to be a part of the package.  I’m betting both will come soon. Ackley’s slowly putting his game back together. A barrage of doubles might signal the next and most important piece.

-Matthew

Bedard is not well-liked by Mariners fans.  I personally always liked him, but I can certainly see his shortcomings.  He was divisive and frustrating at his best.  The argument against generally centers on four points:

1. He was the object of a now horrific trade, where the Mariners gave up Adam Jones and more for Bedard before the 2008 season.
2. He was constantly injured, losing large chunks of every season he played in Seattle.
3. His dealings with the media were short and brusque, often given in one word answers. He often came across as a smug, rude jerk.
4. He obtained a reputation of being unable to pitch deep into games, which, combined with the injuries, led to a reputation of frailty and disinterest.

The first point is indisputable but completely out of Bedard’s control.  The trade was not well liked at the time, but it would have been okay had Bedard stayed on the field. He was a legitimately excellent pitcher when he was on the mound.  Unfortunately, that rarely happened.  He was hurt early and often, missing time in each of the four seasons he spent in Seattle.

With most former players, an injury history like that would be the main memory, but judging by Twitter and blog comments during last night’s game, points three and four above have had a more lasting impression.  The issues with the media were real. He seemed unwilling to speak at any length, especially in response to questions he deemed unnecessary.  It’s understandable if fans were turned off by that.  It personally never bothered me, and I doubt it would have made much impact if he had been good on the field.  For what it’s worth, he was never considered or rumored to be a bad teammate.  Watching him in the dugout, he seemed like a good guy who was liked by his teammates.  That’s hardly conclusive data, but it’s something that runs extremely contrary to the popular narrative.  He also signed with the Mariners for virtually nothing after his first two years, out of loyalty for the way they stood by him during his first two injury-plagued years. Dealing with the media was not his strong suit, but he appeared to be far from a bad guy or a clubhouse cancer.

The reputation for not lasting deep in games is a little more difficult to wade through.  From what I remember, the reputation came from an inability to get through seven innings early in his Mariners career, combined with some comments he made saying that he was essentially a 100-pitch pitcher.  I’m going off memory here, so I apologize if I’m off slightly.  In my memory, the comments were more nuanced than simply saying he could only throw 100 pitches per start.  I remember him saying that he was at his best for 100 pitches, not that he would only throw 100.

Incidentally, this is true for nearly every pitcher in the history of baseball. Hardly anyone is especially good after 90-100 pitches.  A good rule of thumb is that once a pitcher reaches that range or faces the line-up for a fourth time that day, it’s probably time to think about getting him out of there.  There are exceptions, of course, but Bedard was just saying what is universally true. Incidentally, other than a couple of starts where he left early for injury or ineffectiveness, Bedard threw 6-8 innings in most starts that first year. He threw about the same innings as anyone else.

What Bedard did was put his limitations into words, and that’s not something we want out of our athletes.  However unspoken or unrecognized, there’s a level of hero worship with our favorite athletes.  We expect them to do what we can’t, and for good reason. Professional and college athletes can do ridiculous things. The worst player at any point in any of the major sports leagues is one of the greatest athletes to ever walk the earth. I was a moderately decent high school baseball player, but I would have no more luck pitching or hitting against a major leaguer than would my two-year-old nephew. Their talent is so far above anything we can imagine, we expect consistent greatness and lose touch with the limits of their ability.

We want our athletes to go to places we can’t reach. We don’t want to see them ever give up. We know that playing through an injury might actually hurt the team, but we still want to see them out there until their bodies actually prevent them from playing. We don’t want to see a pitcher leave the game until he’s failed.  There’s something noble in giving until there’s nothing left, in leaving only when failure of the body commands it.  It may not be smart, but it resonates with those of us who would have given up days ago.

Erik Bedard knew his limitations, and in many ways he was likely smarter for recognizing and dealing with them.  His problem, as it often was for Bedard, was in letting the rest of us in on the secret.  Communication was never his strong suit.  Pitching was, but since his body never let him do that, a promising career ended as nothing but disappointment.

***********************************************************

A few Mariners notes after the jump!

• The team is right about where expected, hovering around .500. The rotation and line-up are both depending heavily on a few guys, which can’t last.  Offensively, a lot of the young guys look better and are hitting the ball hard, but with few results.  That should even out, but with so many young players still, there’s always the chance that they’ll adjust downward and never be the players we’re hoping for.
• After having to use the bullpen extensively last night, the Mariners switched Lucas Luetge for Bobby LaFromboise. LaFromboise is also a lefty reliever who should eventually be solid if unspectacular.  I would guess this is a short time thing in case they need someone to go a lot of innings tonight, but I wouldn’t be surprised if LaFromboise would do just as well as Luetge over the course of the year.  I had thought they might go for a true long-man for the pen, but the options were pretty limited on the 40-man roster.
• Casper Wells was claimed by Toronto off of waivers today, so… goodbye Casper!
• Brandon Maurer is obviously a problem right now.  Two starts does not mean the end of his career or anything, but it might mean the end of his time in the majors for now.  He looks nervous and overwhelmed with no clear idea how to get major leaguers out.  That could change quickly and any time, or it might not.  It’s impossible to know until it happens.  I’m guessing he’ll get another start or two, mainly because the options behind him aren’t quite there.  Danny Hultzen is throwing well in Tacoma, and in another week or two Jeremy Bonderman should have his arm strength built up enough to be in Seattle if needed.  Neither of those options is enough of a sure upgrade to justify an immediate replacement, though.  The best immediate upgrade, Erasmo Ramirez, is on the disabled list and will need some time in Tacoma before he’s ready for Seattle. I’m guessing mid-May at the earliest before he’ll see Seattle.  It could be rough in the rotation for a bit, but if Maurer and/or Beavan can hold it together for a month or two, there should be a lot of good options once June hits.
• If you live near Tacoma, you should go see the Rainiers, and soon.  They are loaded with talent, and the Mariners top prospect, catcher Mike Zunino, is hitting the cover off the ball. He has four homers in 5 games and his OPS is closer to 2.000 than 1.000.  1.000 would be the best season by a Mariner in a long time, if you need a frame of reference.  He could be in Seattle by July.  I’m notoriously bad about jinxing my favorite teams so I’m hesitant to say this, but we are looking at the first franchise player the Mariners have had on offense in a long time.  He can’t get here soon enough.

-Matthew

Jon Garland came to camp as a non-roster invitee after missing last season with arm issues.  He was a slightly above-average starter before his injuries, so it was widely assumed that if he looked anything like he used to, he would take one of the two open spots.  He’s been decent but not terribly impressive all camp, but he was still expected to make the team.  Complicating matters was a clause in Garland’s contract allowing him to leave the Mariners yesterday if he wanted.  Basically, if the Mariners weren’t going to promise him a rotation spot, he was going to leave.  Much to the media’s surprise, that’s exactly what happened.  It’s a good reminder that, as excellent as much of the media following the Mariners is, no one knows what the Mariners will do except Jack Zduriencik, and he’s not telling anyone before he has to.

The move’s implications for this season are moderate.  Garland didn’t project to be great or terrible.  League-average or slightly better was probably the realistic best-case scenario.  His replacements are less predictable but similarly capable and likely to be in the same performance vicinity.  There appear to be four pitchers in the running for those two spots:

•  Jeremy Bonderman is a veteran in a position similar to Garland’s.  I’d be shocked if he made the rotation.  I’m guessing the Mariners hope he will take an assignment to the minor leagues, where he can continue to build up arm strength after injury and a lot of time off.  He’d then be good depth for injuries or poor performance this summer.  He may decide to retire rather than go to Tacoma, though.
• Blake Beavan is quite familiar to Mariner fans.  He might be slightly less recognizable this season with a revamped delivery aiming to mimic Doug Fister’s.  Seattle Sports Insider has a great breakdown of the windup and potential implications (start here).  I don’t particularly like watching Beavan pitch, but he’s a fairly reliable guy for the back of the rotation, and he’s still only 24.  Age is not a guarantee of improvement, but when combined with the revamped delivery, I’m open to seeing what he can do for a few months at least.
• Erasmo Ramirez should be a lock for a spot, in my opinion.  He has the best stuff of the three mentioned thus far, excellent command, and good major league performance at the end of last season.  I don’t know if the Mariners have penciled him in yet, but I’d be curious to know their reasons if they haven’t.
• Brandon Maurer is this year’s camp phenom.  After battling injuries early in his career, he stayed healthy at Double-A last year and showed enough ability and talent to jump into the conversation with his more ballyhooed rotation-mates (Hultzen, Walker, Paxton).  To some degree, I would say he’s a guy who does many things well without anything especially standing out.  He throws low- to mid-90s, has three other solid or better pitches, and shows good command.  Think Felix, on a much, much smaller scale.  He could probably succeed now, but given his lack of experience at even Triple-A and that past injury history, I probably would start him in Tacoma.  I’m kind of hoping the Mariners feel differently, however, because it’d be fun to see what he can do.

So, barring a big surprise, the opening day rotation will be Felix, Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, and two of the above.  That’s a decent rotation with a chance to be better.  Or it could be worse, if all of the kids fall flat on their faces.  That’s why the Garland decision is somewhat fascinating.  It’s entirely possible that Garland would have/will outperform at least one of the rotation slots.  Maybe, maybe not, but I’d bet on it.

So why is it good the Mariners let him go?  Because it looks like they’re ready to let the young talent they’ve been stockpiling make its presence known.  There is no guarantee Maurer, Ramirez and all of the guys still in the minors will be able to lead the Mariners to prominence.  If they can’t though, it’s going to mean a complete change of plans and likely management.  The future is roped to the Mariners’ youngsters, those both in the majors and minors.  It’s time to give them a shot.

**************************************

That other roster spot still looks life a fight between outfielders Jason Bay and Casper Wells.  Opinions are somewhat split on this one, including between the Good Guys.  The case for each:

• Bay is not far removed from being an all-star, and is still a better hitter than Wells.  He’s unlikely to reach his 2009 numbers again, but it wouldn’t surprise to see him become a good spot starter or better.  He’s a solid defensive outfielder.
• Wells is a better defender who can legitimately play center field.  He’s third on the depth chart at that position, but given that one of those ahead of him is Franklin Gutierrez, it’s a real consideration.  He has power and is young enough to project some improvement.  He’s also under team control for as long as the Mariners could conceivably want him.

Some people think that Wells could be a solid starter if given a shot.  Personally, I don’t see it.  I think he’s too limited as a hitter.  The center field issue is legitimate, but to me it’s not a huge deal.  If it comes to it, the Mariners can track down a center fielder for a while.  They have minor league options who could fill in for a couple of weeks in a pinch.  It’s not ideal, but to me, it’s not worth getting worked up about it if they choose Bay over Wells.  Wells offers security, Bay offers upside.  The Mariners appear to be favoring Bay, but as the Garland decision shows, we won’t know until one of them gets cut.

That’s about it for news right now.  Most of the people still in camp either have a spot or are just depth.  The only questionable position left is the bullpen, but it looks like Kameron Loe will win the last spot with Josh Kinney out for a while.  The most surprising player left in camp might be Brad Miller, the sweet-hitting shortstop who ended the year in double-A.  I don’t think there’s any way he makes the team, but that he’s lasted this long shows how highly the team thinks of him.  If he can improve his defense, he could take Brendan Ryan’s spot as soon as a year from now.

The season starts a week from Monday in Oakland, of course.  The Mariners are doing a cool open house at Safeco that night, where fans can come, see the changes to the stadium, and watch the game on the monstrous new scoreboard screen.  I think doors open at 6:00, and I believe parking is free if you get there in time.

-Matthew

Most of the roster is set at this point, barring injury.  Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales are looking like great additions, and if both can stay healthy, the offense should be at least league-average, if not better.  So far, everyone is hitting the ball, which is more people than the last few seasons by a difference of everyone.  What’s most important this season is for some of the young bats to take a step forward, primarily Montero, Ackley and Smoak.  A lot of the Mariners’ future is built on those three, and if none of them move toward being a difference-maker this year, that’s a blow that will necessitate a change in plans for building this team.

There’s only one roster spot in question on offense, and it appears to be a battle between outfielders Casper Wells and Jason Bay.  Wells provides superior defense and the ability to play center, plus slightly better offense last season.  Bay is coming off a couple of horrific seasons that led to the Mets dumping him before his mammoth contract ended.  The hope is playing in his hometown and being past a few injuries will lead him close to the all star level he held a few seasons ago.  He’s hit well thus far, but who knows if that will hold up.  Some people think Wells has a lot of untapped potential and just needs playing time, but I have my doubts about that.  Bay provides the best shot on the roster at major surprise production, but he could easily be off the roster by June, too.  I won’t be upset by whichever they choose, but I’d probably lean to Wells right now.

On the pitching side, there’s a bit of a battle at the back of the bullpen, which might come down to veteran signee Kameron Loe or rookie Stephen Pryor.  It won’t be a big deal either way, since the bullpen gets shuffled quickly due to injuries and ineffectiveness.  The rotation is a little more crowded.  Felix, Iwakuma and newcomer Joe Saunders are pretty much guarantees.  The last two spots will likely come from Erasmo Ramirez, Blake Beavan or Jon Garland.  Ramirez showed a ton of promise last season and should take one of the spots.  Beavan is still a mediocre guy who can pitch a decent number of innings, which is fine for a fifth starter.  Garland used to be a fairly solid starter, but he’s been out for more than a season after surgery.  He’s been decent but unspectacular this spring.  I would bet that Garland will take the spot, but no guarantees.  It’s possible Danny Hultzen or Brandon Maurer could go crazy in the next few weeks and steal a spot, but it looks more likely they will make an appearance in June or July at the soonest.  Both are excellent prospects, as are Taijuan Walker and James Paxton right behind them.

So there’s a quick overview of the spring so far.  They’ve mostly avoided injuries so far (knock on wood).  Hultzen is nearly back from a minor hip flexor issue, and prospect Stefan Romero just pulled an oblique in the middle of a crazy hot streak.  That’s all I have for now.  We’ll be back with more as stuff actually happens.  If you have to read more now, I’ll post some links after that jump.

The Mariners have a ton of good writers covering them.  Most people are probably familiar with Larry Stone and Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times. Both are excellent, although Baker seems very good at making enemies of readers.  The Times just started charging for their online content though, so if you want some free options, you’re in luck.

USS Mariner and main writer Dave Cameron have become very well known.  They do good work, with a viewpoint heavily biased towards statistical analysis.  Their tone can be a bit off-putting and narrow-minded to me, but to each his own.

Lookout Landing is the other big name among Mariners blogs.  They’re also stats-oriented, but not quite so dogmatic as USS Mariner.  They’re also hilarious.  Jeff Sullivan is one of the better and more entertaining baseball writers anywhere.  Their game threads are great, as long as you’re okay with bad puns and profanity.

Seattle Sports Insider is my personal favorite.  They’re well-versed in sabermetrics, but incorporate plenty of other viewpoints, taking insight from everything from aikido to chess.  I learn more at SSI than any other baseball site anywhere, thanks in part to a community of commenters that add just as much to the conversation as do the primary articles.  One of them, Spectator, has started a sister site focused on the minor leagues, Mariners Talk.  He’s currently in the process of running down his top 66 prospects in the Mariners’ system, which should cover everyone you could ever want to know.  Once the season starts, he posts daily recaps of every Mariner minor league squad.

There are other good sites, including Prospect Insider, and others on a national level, but those are the four I read every day or two. Hope you enjoy.  Go Mariners!

-Matthew

A couple bullets:

• It is hard to find much separation at the top between Oakland, Texas, and LAA. All 3 have playoff potential, but from this breakdown I would also suggest the Mariners are closer to the good teams in the division, rather than the bad (Houston).
• Say what you want about Oakland’s 2012 season being an anomolye, but it’s hard to criticize the roster Billy Beane has been assembled this year. The A’s don’t have a lot of star power but they are solid at every position, and have a ton of depth, which will surely be an asset at some point.
• The positions that were hardest to find a clear cut 1st and 2nd team selection were Catcher, DH, and the 2nd team OFs and Starting Ps. At catcher, Montero projects to have the most playing time and potential, so I gave him the honors. You could make a case for Jaso and Pierzynski too. The same is true between Kendrys Morales, Berkman, and Trumbo, but the numbers suggest Morales (when healthy) is the best option in the group. David Murphy is a nice player, as is Coco Crisp, Franklin Gutierrez, and Chris Young. Take your pick, I went with Murhpy. Starting pitching was a bit of a toss up to when you start picking the 8th-10th best in the AL West. I tried hard to justify an Astro but simply could not. Iwakuma was my 10th selection, but it could have easily gone to Derek Holland, Jason Vargas, or really any Oakland starter.
• In order to visually quantify the separation between teams based on these picks, I’ve awarded 2 points for a 1st team selection, and 1 point for a 2nd team selection. Here’s how it shakes out on a fancy bar graph.

  

  
  ]]> http://goodguyssports.com/2013/03/01/2013-al-west-team/feed/ 0 dpscansen 2013 AL West graph http://goodguyssports.com/2013/02/06/live-signing-day-thread-2/ http://goodguyssports.com/2013/02/06/live-signing-day-thread-2/#comments Wed, 06 Feb 2013 14:51:57 +0000 andrewlong7 http://goodguyssports.com/?p=4333 Continue reading →]]> A Class Review By Positions -  No real news coming out of the press conference.  Here is the number of players at each position.  I may sign off for the day after this, so thanks for sticking around.  As always, if something happens we’ll let you know.
  QB – 1, RB -1, WR – 3, TE – 1, OL – 3, DL – 4, LB – 4, DB – 4, K – 1, Total – 22

  Notes From Sark – One of the points of emphasis was that this class is about quality over quantity in the press conference.  This is probably the first time in Sark’s tenure that he could say that.
  Lavon Coleman (RB) is now 220 lbs. fitting the bill of a bigger running back.
  Length was a point of emphasis for the class, as it has been for the last year or two.  The staff likes tall players.
  Cameron Van Winkle (K) will enroll early and will participate in Spring practice.
  Sark says that he would like to red-shirt more players this year.
  Sark says, “We have room to expand” in talking about the class.

  We’re Back – I’m awake from my nap and am ready to roll now.  Sean Constantine did get his papers in.  Jack went to UCLA.  Falah signed with USC, in a bit of surprising news.  The Huskies weren’t able to swing him but he had been committed to the Trojans all along.  The press conference starts soon so I’ll pass along anything that’s really interesting.  I’ll leave most of that to the professional writers though.  Also, if there’s any more commits I’ll pass that along as well.

  Break Time – With that, I’m going to take a bit of a break.  If anything significant happens one of us will update the blog but I don’t expect anything out of the ordinary.  Constantine will go to U-Dub and Jack will probably go to UCLA.  After Constantine, that should put the Huskies at 22 for the day.  The press conference is at 2, if you’re wondering.

  Kelly’s Officially A Dawg – Jermaine Kelly just sent in his LOI and is now officially a Dawg.  I wrote a little snippet about him below so check that out.  A good pickup for the Dawgs.

  Kelly Announcing Soon – We should hear on Jermaine Kelly any minute and it’s all but confirmed that he’s going to be a Dawg.  From what I’ve read, USC had been talking to Kelly for about the last month and offered him a scholarship yesterday.  This is big for the Dawgs to hold on to him.  He’s a 4-star corner out of California.

  11 A.M. Update – Sorry, I had to make Matthew breakfast.  He’s so lazy.  Anyway, nothing has really happened as of late.  Here are a few bits of information.  Jamie Bryant will grayshirt next season.  It’s unclear if he’ll sign today.  Joe Sanders will not be signing with UW, he is signing with a junior college.  It sounds like academics played a part.  The Bellevue guys (Jack and Constantine) will announce at 1 P.M. but don’t expect any surprises.  Jermaine Kelly will announce in about half an hour.  I may take a break after Kelly announces and then come back for the press conference.  The rest of the announcements will come later this afternoon or early evening.  I’ll keep you updated until Kelly announces though.  Thanks for following along!

  Keyshawn Bierria Is In – Bierria signs with the Huskies, which, again, isn’t a huge surprise.  Bierria had Oregon State as his favorite before coming to U-Dub on a visit last weekend.  He’s a linebacker from California.

  Oops – As Matthew pointed out, Kelly is still expected to sign with the Huskies.  I forgot him down below his comment, so three verbals to go plus Bierria.  That would put the Huskies at 23 commits if all four of those guys sign.

  More on Enewally - Matthew here for a second. Enewally has supposedly secretly committed to UW and UCLA numerous times, and had offers pulled at several schools because of how he handled his recruiting.  That said, he’s a talented guy.  He’s expected to play safety, so it shouldn’t say anything about Jermaine Kelly.  Everyone expects Kelly to UW still, just taking a while.

  Two Verbal Commits To Go – Unless I’m missing something, the Huskies only have 2 verbal commitments who haven’t signed their letters of intent.  Those two are Sean Constantine (LB) and Jamie Bryant (DT).  Constantine is from Bellevue and I’m fairly sure they do some sort of Signing Day celebration.  I’m not sure what the hold up is for Bryant but I haven’t heard anything about him not getting in.  Of course, it sounded like Bierria will be a Husky.  Aside from those three, I don’t really know who to really expect.

  Lavon Coleman signs – The Huskies get their running back as Lavon Coleman signs from Lompoc, California.  Coleman is 6’0, 210 lbs. and I’ve heard him described as a poor man’s Chris Polk.  Coleman is the only running back who verbally committed to U-Dub, so the Dawgs are probably done at that spot.

  18 and Counting… The Dawgs are up to 18 signed players counting Williams and Walker.  I’d guess there’s about 7 more to go.  I’ve been saying 22-25 today, but at this point I’m thinking it will be 25.

  More Surprises to come? – It sounds as if that won’t be the only surprise today.  It looks like the Dawgs may be trying to fill the spots they left open for the Robinson twins and Hall.

  Patrick Enewally is the surprise – Enewally had a very strange recruitment but has decided to sign with the Huskies.  I hope this doesn’t mean anything bad on the Jermaine Kelly status.  Enewally is a corner from California who is 6’1 and played safety in high school.  He’s ranked as a 3-star recruit by Scout.

  Connor O’Brien Is In – O’Brien is from the same school as Crane so no surprise that these came at the same time.  This also isn’t the ‘surprise’.  Connor is a linebacker who is 6’3, 205 lbs.  He did play safety in high school but it looks like he’ll be a linebacker.  Scout ranks him as a 3-star recruit.  UPDATE:  The school website lists O’Brien as 230 lbs.  That’s a big discrepancy between Scout and the school so we’ll see.  He could be a rush end type player at that weight.

  Dane Crane Signs – This isn’t the surprise.  Dane Crane was ranked the number 3 center in the country by Scout.  He’s from California and is a very good pickup.  Crane might be the best of the offensive linemen the Huskies have so far.  He is the highest rated, at least.  Crane has been fun to follow throughout the process as he seems very excited to be a Husky.

  “A Surprise Is Coming In a Few” – The Husky chat just said these words.  I don’t know what this means and it might not be anything different from what we’ve already said.  But, stay tuned.

  Kevin King Pushes It To 15 – We have our first defensive back of the day (if you don’t count Trevor Walker).  Kevin King has signed with the Huskies.  He’s a cornerback out of Oakland, California.  He is 6’2 and was ranked as a 3-star by Scout.

  Notre Dame Saying “That Was A Mistake” – So, I guess Vanderdoes isn’t supposed to be on that list.  Either that’s a rule infraction or he has sent in his papers to Notre Dame and they accidentally let it slip before his conference at 5 P.M.

  Vanderdoes to Notre Dame? – It sounds as if Notre Dame just released that Vanderdoes has sent in papers to them.  That takes out some of the intrigue if it’s true.  Not many thought he would sign with the Huskies so this isn’t really a loss or anything and it’s nice that he didn’t sign inside the conference in that case.

  We’re Up To 14 – If you include Troy Williams and Trevor Walker, who are enrolled, the Huskies are up to 14 guys who are in.  The Dawgs won’t take more than 25 (unless all the big names decide to pick him) and probably won’t take less than 22.

  Oregon Up, USC Down – Oregon has picked up some good prospects today and it seems like USC is losing a guy about every hour or so.  Oregon could be ranked pretty closely to U-Dub at the end of the day but that was somewhat expected.

  Kevin Shelton to Idaho – Kevin Shelton, who is a tight end from Auburn, was thought to be a preferred walk-on for the Huskies but it looks like he took a scholarship at Idaho.  It’s hard to blame a guy for taking a scholarship, so good for him.

  Andrew Basham signs – The Dawgs break the dry spell with a big boy from Lynnwood.  Basham is a defensive tackle who is 6’4, 305 lbs.  Apparently he’s really good at shot-put, as well.  Basham is ranked as a 3-star recruit by Scout.  It’s possible that he will be switched to the offensive line.

  Slowing Down – For whatever reason, things seem to be slowing down.  The Huskies have about 10 guys left to sign and they will trickle through here at some point.  We’ve gone about 20 minutes without a new letter in though.

  UW’s Overall Class – I think it’s easy to get caught up with the ceremony and decisions on Signing Day and forget about the overall class.  So, while losing Daeshon Hall is bad, the overall class still looks very good.  It’s a top-15 class and top-3 in the conference.  Most of the verbal commits will sign with the Huskies.  So, don’t get caught up if a guy has a Husky hat on the table but picks up a different one.  Most of the groundwork for this class was laid a long time ago.

  What We’re Missing – The Huskies are waiting on about 12 more guys to sign.  None of the DB’s have signed.  Jermaine Kelly was offered by USC last night, so that’s a guy to keep an eye on (although he seems pretty firm to U-Dub).  The Dawgs are also missing 3 linebackers and 3 defensive linemen.  So, most of the offense is filled up (missing C Dane Crane and RB Lavon Coleman) but the defense still has quite a few guys to add.

  Bob Condotta on KJR – Condotta is on KJR right now if you’re by a radio.

  UW’s Gained and Lost – So, the Huskies have lost out on some big fish so far.  The Robinson didn’t switch and stayed at Oregon.  Daeshon Hall chose A&M.  The Huskies do appear to be picking up Keishawn Bierria and Joe Sanders though.  Those aren’t quite as big of names but are still solid pickups.

  Damore’ea Stringfellow signs – The Huskies appear to have all of their wide receivers locked up for the day.  Stringfellow is probably my favorite wide receiver of the group, but they all are ranked highly.  Stringfellow is 6’3, 215 so another big, outside guy.  11 guys have signed.

  10 Letters In – As of 8:08 A.M. there are 10 Letters of Intent in.  So, we probably have 12 to 15 to go.

  Joe Mathis signs – Joe Mathis is a defensive end out of California.  He’s 6’4, 255 and is ranked a 4-star recruit by Scout.  Mathis is a really good player and also helps soften the blow of Hall.

  More on Bierria – I’m guessing that Bierria took the scholarship that they were holding for Myles Jack as Jack sounds like he’ll be going to UCLA.  I doubt there’s much chance that Jack is going elsewhere, although he hasn’t signed as of 8:05.

  Coleman Shelton signs – OL Coleman Shelton, who committed this weekend has now signed with the Huskies as we’re about an hour into the day.  Shelton is the second offensive linemen in the fold, and we’re only waiting for Dane Crane now.  Of course, the Dawgs could add another guy later, hopefully Falah.

  Hall to A&M – Daeshon Hall just announced that he is going to Texas A&M.  That’s the first real bad news of the day.  This will hurt the Dawgs in the recruiting standings but if Bierria and Sanders sign (as well as Falah) then it will soften the blow.  Nonetheless, bad news for the Dawgs.

  Keishawn Bierria to U-Dub – The Huskies pick up a commitment from California linebacker Keishawn Bierria.  This isn’t really a surprise but he had yet to commit.  His LOI isn’t in yet but it sounds like it’s only a matter of time.

  Van Winkle Stats – The Husky website is reporting that K Cameron Van Winkle made at least 6 kicks from 42 yards or farther.  His long is 49 yards.

  Spring Practice Update – The Go Huskies chat says that the Huskies will announce the spring practice dates in the next week or so.  They don’t know where the spring game will be yet but will soon.

  8 Players Have Signed – Victor, Qualls, Kirkland, Daniels, Farria, Ross, Ajamu, and Van Winkle have signed.  So, not counting Walker and Williams the Dawgs have 8 in.

  Cameron Van Winkle Signs – The Huskies have their kicker as Mt. Si’s Cameron Van Winkle signs with the Dawgs.  He is a good kicking recruit and has range to about 55 yards from what I have read.  I had heard that he’d be enrolling early but I’m guessing that this won’t happen.

  More on Daniels – Via the school’s live chat, Daniels is 6-4 and ran a 10.74 100 meter.  No real news there but that’s the time and sizes the coaches have on him.

  David Ajamu signs – Ajamu is a TE from Washington who had been committed to Oregon State before flipping a few months ago.  He gives the Huskies some depth at TE and will probably red-shirt this year.  Ajamu is 6-4, 255.

  Hall to Texas A&M – Lots of rumors out there that Daeshon Hall is headed to Texas A&M.  This would obviously be a big loss but we’ll wait and see.  Official news should come any minute.

  Darrell Daniels is in – Daniels is another 4-star receiver.  This is a class that should keep the U-Dub receiver group strong for the next 4 years.  Daniels is a bigger guy than Ross and is more likely to play on the outside while Ross is more of a slot guy.

  Andrew Kirkland signs – The first offensive lineman of the day signs.  Kirkland is out of Portland, Oregon.  He is listed as an offensive tackle by the school so that may or may not be telling.  He is a 3-star commit.

  John Ross Signs – John Ross, one of the 3 4-star wide receiver commits, has sent in his LOI.  John Ross is supposedly the fastest of the receivers and is a little smaller than Daniels or Stringfellow.

  A Surprise? – Rumors are swirling that Joe Sanders, who visited when Reuben Foster, is going to sign with Washington.  This is a big surprise if it does happen.  I don’t know if this bodes well for Hall signing but you take all the good players you can get.  Sanders is a 3-star defensive end from Georgia.  Here’s his Scout profile.  If he is signing with U-Dub, a tornado drill is holding up the process.  That’s a new one.

  Robinson Twins Going To Oregon – I can’t say I’m really surprised, but the Tyrell and Tyree Robinson showed up to their signing wearing all Oregon gear so it looks like they’re headed there.  It’s too bad but it’s not really a loss since the Huskies never had them.

  Azeem Victor Is In – Azeem Victor, a linebacker from California, has signed his letter and is in the fold.  Lots of letters starting to come in now.

  Elijah Qualls Signs – The big 6’4, 280 DT/FB is the second guy to get his fax in.  He is one of my favorite players in the class.  He hits people really hard and is athletic for his size.  He is a 4-star recruit and a very solid new player for the Dawgs.

  Robinson Twins Going To Oregon? – There was a tweet just sent out that makes it sound as if the Robinson’s are headed to Oregon.  Nothing official but I’m guessing that it’s correct.

  Hall Announcing at 7:30 – It sounds as if Hall will announce at 7:30 so we should know soon on him.

  More Farria – Farria is ranked as a 3-star commit by both big recruiting services.  He may have gone up in those rankings but didn’t attend many summer camps.  He seems to have some upside.  Here is his scout profile.

  7:05 A.M. - Now seems like an appropriate time to remember that S Trevor Walker and QB Troy Williams have already enrolled in school.  They still have to send in papers today, but their isn’t much drama there.

  7:00 A.M. – And we’re off as Marcus Farria is the first to get his letter in.  Farria is a defensive end out of Arizona.  One of those long, lean guys that the Huskies have recruited in recent years.  He’s about 6’4, 220 and will look to add weight when he comes into school.  He’s a part of a very strong defensive line class.

  6:54 A.M. – I just realized this is my 300th post at the blog.  It’s fitting that it comes today on one of my favorite events to cover.  Thanks for everyone who has followed along over the last few years!

  6:40 A.M. – Good morning, Dawg fans.  We’re up and running now at just past 6:30 for one of the more interesting sports days of the year.  Today, the Huskies, and about 120 other teams will add around 25 players to their roster.  In no other sport does that happen and that’s why this day is interesting.  Sure, people over-hype players but it’s somewhat ignorant to say that it doesn’t matter where these kids sign.  These ‘kids’ will be a teams core in 4 years and, while coaching is probably the most important aspect of college football, you can’t teach a player true talent.

  Anyway, throughout the day I’ll be posting updates here about the NLI’s that come in.  They should start rolling in here any minute.  The Robinson twins are supposed to announce anytime although they just sent out a tweet that said, “Would that b crazy if I don’t sign today.  That’s how I’m feeling.”  So, who knows what will happen there.  Daeshon Hall is supposed to announce at 8:30.  Eddie Vanderdoes is announcing at 5 P.M. today so we’ll have to wait a while for that one, although it doesn’t sound like the Dawgs will get the big man.  Others will decide throughout the day, although I don’t think the Huskies will get more than 1 or 2 surprises.  We’ll keep you updated here and hopefully everyone will decide early so that way I can take a nap.

  There’s plenty of other places to catch the information today.  Bob Condotta always does a great job covering whatever comes his way.  The school website has some cool formats and information on the new players.  UW Dawgpound has some player profiles that are well done.  I’ll pass along more links throughout the day.  So, here we go!

  
  ]]> http://goodguyssports.com/2013/02/06/live-signing-day-thread-2/feed/ 0 andrewlong7