I understand all of these stances, but let’s recap the big picture, as in the 5 year rebuild Jack inherited in October 2008.

THE BLUEPRINT

2009, Year 1: shed dead weight, begin overhauling the farm

2010, Year 2: shed dead weight, continue building the farm (and lock up Felix)

2011, Year 3: bring the youth up, evaluate potential, acquire more young talent

2012, Year 4: continue youth movement, achieve .500 record

2013, Year 5: add 1-2 big pieces, contend for playoffs

I wrote about Years 1 and 2 of the rebuilding process, as well as
Year 3. Welcome to Year 4 Mariner fans. For the first time on Jack’s watch, I think the on field W/L record is important. .500 ball is a reasonable expectation this year, which would be a welcomed site for our eyes. The blueprint I laid out reflects what we’ve seen Jack say and do for 3+ years, and the M’s are still on track to contend within 5 years of Bavasi’s exit.

There are multiple ways to rebuild a baseball organization, and dozens of varying factors must be weighed. In 4 1/2 years on the job, Bill Bavasi set this club back 5 years, minimum. I’ve said this before, and perhaps my bias is too entangled to make this statement, but I honestly think Bavasi might be the worst GM a baseball franchise has ever had.
Side Note-

In a 1 year stretch, From December 7, 2005—December 7, 2006, Bavasi made 7 trades involving players that made a major league roster. Combined, Bavasi traded Yorvit Torrealba, Matt Thornton, Asdrubal Cabrera, Eddie Guardado, Shin-Soo Choo, Jamie Moyer, and Rafael Soriano, in exchange for Joe Borchard, Eduardo Perez, Ben Broussard, Andy Baldwin, Sean White, and Horacio Ramirez.

As for player signings, more than half of Bavasi’s signings were horrible. His 12 worst were Scott Spiezio, Rich Aurilia, Richie Sexson, Pokey Reese, Jarrod Washburn, Carl Everett, Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, Yuniesky Betancourt, Carlos Silva, Brad Wilkerson, and Kenji Johjima (extension). That’s a combined $225 million. In the end, 7 were cut, 2 traded, and 2 (Batista and Washburn) played out the full contract.

Jack’s record is not flawless either. The Figgins deal is awful, trading Morse for Langerhans hurts, and you could question the Morrow trade and Guti extension. But he has hit some real home runs, and given the state of the organization, I agree with the blueprint that Jack has committed to. This is not to say there aren’t circumstances that deviate from the plan. Heck, when Cliff Lee fell into our lap, we were thinking playoffs, just 2 years into this regime. I’m a firm believer in adding talent when you get the chance, whether you are 1, 2, or 5 pieces from real contention, and I’d imagine Jack agrees. The M’s may have been competitive in the Prince bidding, but alas, year 4 will not include Prince Fielder, nor should it at the price he ultimately got. So the original plan continues, and all things considered, the plan is on track. The splash that elevates the M’s from re-build mode to contend mode will come, it’s just a year away.

I’ll leave you with this morsel, on the heels of losing Prince. The Tigers have committed $338m for Prince/Cabrera/V-Mart. Seattle’s mini-version of Smoak/Montero/Carp costs $1.26m.

I have long (another pun, but less obvious) been in the ‘sing Prince’ camp but today isn’t very disappointing since, well, look at that price!  That is insane.  The highest I’d have gone would have been 8 years for 165 million.  I’m a big (not as big as Prince) fan of Fielder, but that price just isn’t reasonable for this team.  It’s not reasonable for most of this team.

Yes, it’s disappointing that we won’t see Prince in an M’s uniform.  I’ve been picturing him hitting homers off the Hit It Here Cafe all off-season but that won’t happen until the Tigers visit.  This deal could have strapped the Marines for years to come and the re-signing Felix and the other young talent on the roster would have been much harder had this gone through.  Thing about Chone Figgins.  When he signed most people thought it was a good deal, myself included.  Now, it feels like he’s been here forever but still has 2 years left on his contract.  Of course, Fielder is much better than Figgins and will produce to an extent, at least.  The point is that by year 7 or 8 of his contract, Fielder could become crippling to the Tigers organization.  It may be worth it, but only time will tell.

The truth is, it sounds as if Fielder was never very interested in being here.  We don’t know how true that is, but take it for what it’s worth.  Hey Prince!  We don’t want you for that price either, so take that!

More thoughts after the jump.  Bullet Hole time.

• This has been one of the more interesting weeks I’ve seen on Twitter.  First, we had Chip Kelly leaving and then not leaving Oregon.  There was nothing too crazy about all those reports because they all seemed factual.  Then, today Twitter went bananas when some guy acted like the reporter, Jon Heyman, and reported that Fielder had agreed to a contract with the Washington Nationals.  People finally realized that this was a fake Jon Heyman (spelled John Heyman) and retracted all their thoughts.  Then, several minutes later the real Jon Heyman reported the Fielder deal.  I really enjoyed the whole ordeal.  I’m guessing that the fake John Heyman enjoyed it too.
• Jack Z met with reporters yesterday following the finalization of the Montero-Pineda trade and didn’t sound overly confident in Montero’s catching ability.  Who knows if he’ll be used there, but if not the M’s didn’t really have a spot for Prince.  You always find room for talent, but not at that price when you have decent options already.
• So, what’s next?  I don’t know.  The Mariners should have money.  Most people think they are around an 82 Million dollar payroll right now, which could leave them with anywhere from 10 million to 20 million to spend.  Where would we spend it though?  Third base is an obvious choice but there aren’t many guys out there to acquire.  The Mariners will surely take some heat from their fans if they try to trim payroll but if there’s nothing out there to spend it on, I guess I’m fine with it.  I’d rather they save it up for next years off-season when they can go after something that fits a need.  I’m guessing Jack Z has a plan B and I’m excited to see what it is, but if he doesn’t it’s not the end of the world.

It’s about this time of year where I get anxious for baseball.  I don’t know why I get excited, seeing what the M’s have done the last few years but I just look forward to it.  Thankfully, only 20 days until pitchers and catchers report!  Thankfully, those 20 days won’t be filled with Prince Fielder speculation.

Andrew

The Ducks will surely make a play for Boise State’s Chris Petersen and maybe TCU’s Gary Patterson, but I have my doubts they’ll land a big name guy if sanctions are really coming.  Husky fans just have to hope that Oregon’s search doesn’t lead to Oregon alum and new Husky DC Justin Wilcox.  I don’t think it will, but if he leaves, he might take a good chunk of the new defensive staff with him.  Assuming this goes through, it’s going to be a crazy week of recruiting before the February 1st signing day.  Stay tuned.

-Matthew

Anyway, if you haven’t been paying attention or haven’t stopped to think about what the team looks like, I’ll try to help you out with a little fake Q & A.  I’m making up the questions and I probably won’t have any answers, so don’t expect too much, but this will still be a pretty good time.

Who’s new this year?

Well, Jesus Montero’s the big one.  More on him in a minute.  Then there’s John Jaso, the mediocre young catcher acquired from Tampa Bay, who could actually be a pretty big upgrade.  Not a lot after that.  There are a bunch of relievers who may or may not make the team.  More importantly, the Japanese pipeline is back open, with Hisashi Iwakuma likely to join the rotation and Ichiro’s workout buddy Munenori Kawasaki vying for a backup infield spot.  Iwakuma could be pretty good.  Kawasaki is good with the glove but unlikely to hit, so that’s nothing new.  They just signed Kevin Millwood for rotation depth as well.

So this team will still be bad?

Well, they’re not likely to be great with this roster.  I also don’t think they’ll be as bad as they were last year.  They lost Michael Pineda in the Montero deal, but the rotation could still be solid, especially if Iwakuma is effective and one or both of mega-prospects Danny Hultzen and James Paxton can have an impact.  On offense, there’s a lot of young talent that should get better.  They still have plenty of questions, of course. Ackley seems like a sure thing, but he’s not, really.  Neither is Mike Carp.  I think Justin Smoak will be a lot better, but it could go either way.  And what happens in the outfield?  Some combination of Carp, Casper Wells, Trayvon Robinson, and a hopefully healthy Franklin Gutierrez might blossom, or they might all be terrible.

What about that Prince guy?

He’s still out there, and it’s still anyone’s guess where he’ll sign.  The initial reaction after the Montero  trade was that the Mariners would no longer be interested in Fielder, but that may not be the case.  I don’t think Fielder wants to come to Seattle, but whether he would if Seattle is his biggest offer remains to be seen.

So, if he does want to come to Seattle, should they sign him?

That’s a good question.  He would certainly be a big addition (mandatory Fielder fat pun).  Ideally, you’d save the money for a year or two, figure out where you have holes after some young guys fail or succeed, and then add a superstar at one of those positions (likely outfield or third base).  In practice, that’s not so easy, because those guys may not be available or want to come to Seattle.  Alternatively, you could add Prince now, hope his health holds out, and build the team around him.  Both plans have risks.  If you add Prince, you at least get some excitement and what should be a significantly better team for 2012.

What about that Montero guy?

He’s pretty good, or at least he should be.  He’s about as good an offensive prospect as you can currently find in the minors.  He’s right handed, which isn’t ideal, but he has huge power and can take it to the opposite field, which is.  Projecting for rookie seasons is difficult, but I’m betting he holds his own this year and is an elite bat before long.  He gets compared to Miguel Cabrera and Mike Piazza often, and Edgar since the trade.  So that’s cool.

Where will he play?

That’s the big question.  He’s always been a catcher, but most analyst types don’t think he can catch in the big leagues.  Plenty of people disagree with that, so who knows for sure.  I would expect that he’ll get plenty of time at catcher, at least in the first half of the year.  If he can’t catch at that point, he’ll see more and more time at DH and first base, depending on what happens with Prince and Smoak.  It would be huge if he can catch, even if they limit him to 60-100 games a year and put him at DH the rest of the time.

Any other rookies to watch for?

Hard to say for sure.  Hultzen and/or Paxton should see Seattle sometime in 2012, possibly as soon as opening day.  They could have a Pineda-like impact, or they could struggle like most rookie pitchers.  On offense, Alex Liddi might make a more extended appearance at third, but it would probably be ideal if he spent most of the year in Tacoma.  Watch out for a couple of sort of sleepers.  Nick Franklin and Vinnie Catricala are both major prospects, but most don’t expect them to see Seattle this year.  The front office loves Franklin, though, and his bat would be a huge improvement there.  He lost much of last season to some weird injuries, but before that he was on the fast track.  Catricala has the biggest non-Montero bat in the Mariners minors, but defense is the question.  If he can improve at third, don’t be surprised to see him get a prolonged shot before the season ends.

Anything else?  How about the bullpen?

Good question.  Relievers are really hard to predict.  Guys go from good to bad and bad to good and everything in between with little warning.  That said, it should be better this year.  Pretty much everyone is back.  League could be traded, but not likely before the trading deadline.  Tom Wilhelmsen showed the ability to be a shut down guy at the end of last year.  George Sherrill was added (forgot about him above!) and is still a weapon against left-handers.  Plus, George Sherrill!  That guy’s great.  I wonder if he still wears his hat weird.  So anyway, the bullpen should be better, but don’t be surprised if it’s not.

Chone Figgins?

Still here.  In the best shape of his career, of course.  Still have a hard time believing they’d have him on the opening day roster, but that’s a lot of money to eat if they can’t find a trade partner.  And no, no one is going to take on his whole salary in trade, but you might save a few million or get a different disappointing veteran back.  Think the Silva-Bradley trade.  Except Figgins might be worse than either of them.

Don’t forget Ichiro.

How could anyone forget Ichiro?  2011 was the worst season of his career, but Ichiro’s such a unique player that it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll bounce back or not.  I’m guessing (hoping) he will, but he might not.  Having a couple of Japanese players around might help, and I’m sure he’s working doubly hard this offseason.  A renewed Ichiro would be a huge addition.  It’s easy to forget how great he’s been.  If he played at his career averages in 2012, that would provide a huge and consistent threat on offense that would make a major difference.  Ichiro!

That covered quite a bit.  If you have any other questions or thoughts, put them in the comments and I’ll give you my opinion, which will probably not help, but that’s the way it goes.  Happy almost baseball season!

-Matthew

Who They Lose

Jermaine Kearse

Devin Aguilar

Kearse had a very contentious career for a guy who is probably one of the five or so greatest receivers ever at UW.  He made play after play and caught a huge amount of touchdowns.  I can’t get the Husky record book to open right now, but he’s near the top in a number of categories.  The consistent issues with drops plagued Kearse.  More than a few had major effects on games and kept him from being a huge fan favorite.  He was never quite what he could have been because of the drops, but he is still a huge threat to replace.  Aguilar was a little more consistent but not quite the playmaking threat that Kearse was.  Still, he made a lot of catches at critical moments.  Replacing these two is a fairly tall order.  They both had flaws, but they are clearly one of the better WR combos the Huskies have ever had.

Who Is Back

Kasen Williams- Sophomore

James Johnson- Senior

Cody Bruns- Senior

Kevin Smith- Junior

The saving grace in an otherwise lackluster group is Williams.  It took him half the season to get going, but once he did, all the hype he brought with him seemed inadequate to the actual talent he possesses.  He looked faster than expected, and his overall athleticism is ridiculous.  His leap over a Cougar in the Apple Cup is already legendary.  I expect Kasen will take a huge jump forward this year and be one of the best receivers in a conference full of good ones.

Kasen’s presence allows the rest of this group to be the solid supporting cast they are.  Johnson still has come nowhere near to living up to the promise he showed as a freshman, but his junior season was a huge step up from a wasted sophomore year.  If he can take another step he’s a solid second receiver.  Bruns redshirted last year, in part to give them some depth for 2012 and in part to deal with the death of his father.  He’s done a little of everything in his career, but as a receiver, he best fits the role of a reliable third down guy.  I’m curious to see what the year off does to him.  Hopefully he can close his career with a big year, especially after the tragedy of losing his father.  Smith had a mixed year as a receiver.  I can remember a few big drops and it didn’t always seem like he had the position mastered.  At the same time, his athleticism is second only to Kasen and his kick returns showed that he has an ability in the open field that few others on the team possess.  This year should show if he can be a consistent threat or not.

Who They’re Adding

DiAndre Campbell (Soph.), Jamaal Jones (Fr.) and Josh Perkins (Fr.) kind of blur together for me.  They all fit the prototypical “Sarkisian wide receiver” profile: tall, lanky, decent speed.  I don’t honestly know enough about any of them to say more, but I’d expect at least one to make a mark this year.  They all bring more height than any of the upperclassmen except for Kasen.

Marvin Hall is a little different.  Originally a 2011 recruit, he wasn’t admitted to school and sat out the fall getting eligible before enrolling this winter.  He’ll be a true freshman.  It wouldn’t be a surprise if he had an immediate impact, especially as a return man.  He’s a smaller guy who is dangerous in the open field.  It’s a profile that no other Husky receiver possesses.  He’ll be in spring practice, which should provide an advantage over the other incoming freshmen.

Incoming Recruits

The Huskies have a nice looking group of receivers coming in next fall, but none of them stand out as a guy who will demand playing time.  The closest is probably Kendyl Taylor, a tall and shifty receiver from Arizona who seems like he’s been under the radar a bit.  They’re still working on recruiting a couple of guys, most notably Jordan Payton, a current Cal commit who is reconsidering after the coaching moves.  He is on campus for a visit this weekend.  Scout.com has him as the 15th ranked receiver in the country.  I would expect he’d play his freshman year, but whether that’s in Seattle or Berkley remains to be seen.

Analysis

Kasen should keep this group from taking a big step back.  He is far and away the most talented UW receiver since Reggie Williams.  The other veterans are solid, but a breakout from Johnson or Smith would be huge.  They’ll also probably need one of the younger guys to have an impact, but I’d be pretty surprised if that doesn’t happen.  There aren’t a ton of playmakers here, at least not yet, but there are worse options than Kasen Williams and a bunch of solid role players.

-Matthew

Who They Lose

Only Chris Polk, maybe the best running back in UW history.  On a play-by-play basis, Napolean Kaufman and Corey Dillon and probably a few others may have been more dangerous, but no one was as consistently dominating, punishing and dependable as Polk.  He ran incredibly hard and was the perfect back to run behind a mediocre offensive line.  I wish we could have seen what he would have done with some better running room.

Sarkisian has said several times that no one has better embodied the type of program he wants to run than Polk.  He was mainly talking about his toughness and physicality, but I think it could be applied to Polk’s personality as well.  He’s known as a talker, a little bit brash, but a huge competitor, teammate and leader.  He will be sorely missed and remembered as a true Husky Legend.

Who Is Back

Jesse Callier- Junior

Bishop Sankey- Sophomore

FB Jonathan Amosa- Senior

FB Tim Tucker- Junior

There are other running backs on scholarship (see below), but Callier and Sankey are the two who received extensive playing time last year.  Callier has received a good number of carries the last two years, mostly as a change of pace to Polk.  He gets a lot of end-arounds and runs outside the tackles, and even runs the wildcat (WildDawg!) on occasion.  Callier has been solid, if mostly unexciting.  He doesn’t seem to quite have the electricity to make up for his apparent lack of physicality that keeps him from being more effective between the tackles.  That being said, his chances have been limited and I’ll be curious to see what he can do if he gets more regular carries this year.  He was a ridiculously productive high school player.  I’m skeptical he can be an above-average starter, but he’s an excellent back-up at worst.

Sankey, about whom much has already been written, mainly due to his spurning of the Cougars, received more carries as 2011 went along and made the most of them.  He seemed a bit more effective than Callier at running up the middle, and he showed a good burst of speed to match.  Out of the two, he seems more likely to grab hold of the primary job.  He did nothing to dampen my hopes for him and probably even raised them a few notches by forcing his way into some playing time.

At fullback, Amosa is a walk-on and Tucker is a converted linebacker.  Both are solid blockers, but neither does a lot with the ball.  The loss of Zach Fogerson to a medical retirement before the season really hurt.  He was a threat as a runner as well as having the size to be a good blocker.  Sark’s offense at USC made great use of the fullback (think Stanley Havili), but he has yet to have that type of player at UW.  Amosa and Tucker are dependable guys, but neither is a running threat.  If one could develop into a goal line back, that would be pretty helpful.

Who They’re Adding

Johri Fogerson has been around forever, but thanks to two consecutive years lost to injury, he’s back for one more year.  He’s no game changer, but he provides a little bit of everything.  I see his role being mostly a third down back, an experienced guy who can catch some passes out of the backfield.  If healthy, he provides decent depth, which is needed on this squad.

Deontae Cooper seems like he’s been here almost as long as Fogerson, and we still haven’t seen him step on the field.  Two seperate knee injuries have wiped out 2010 and then 2011 before they even started.  Before the injuries, he was unquestionably the most talented back on the roster.  The question now is whether he can ever get on the field and what he’ll look like once he does.  It’s hard to imagine he’ll be more than a shell of his former self, at least right away.  We really will have no idea until he gets into practice and a couple of games, however.  If he can play and play at the level he was at coming out of high school, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him starting by the end of the season.  Those are big ifs, though.

Dezden Petty was a 2011 recruit at fullback.  I honestly am not sure if he played on special teams last year.  I think it was a redshirt year, but I’m not positive.  He sounds like he’s more in the mode of a playmaking fullback and could even see some minutes at tailback.  I have no idea what the Huskies have in Petty, but I think he’ll see the field a decent amount this year, if for no other reason than a lack of depth.

Incoming Recruits

Currently, the Dawgs have one running back commit, Erich Wilson, and he could end up on defense.  They also have a linebacker, Ryan McDaniel, who could end up at running back.  They have quite a few offers out to other guys, at RB and FB, but I’m not sure who they have a great shot at.  Two guys are visiting this weekend, the awesome Psalm Wooching, who is tentatively committed to UCLA, and Brandon Wilson, from Louisiana.  Wilson is interesting.  He’s missed a lot of time with injury, but his film looks incredible.  The fact that Sark dug him out of the south is a good sign, but there are no guarantees he even comes to UW.  At any rate, I’m not sure this class gives the 2012 Huskies anything more than emergency depth and maybe a situational guy or two.

Analysis

There’s good talent here, but filling in for Polk is a daunting task.  This group is definitely a step back.  Still, there’s lots of talent here, and an older offensive line will hopefully provide a little more running room (I think I’ve written that every offseason in history).  Best case: Cooper comes back strong, Sankey and Callier take a big step forward, and the three battle for carries all year.  Worst case: Cooper gets hurt again or just doesn’t have any explosiveness left, Sankey and Callier get hurt or have fumbling issues, and the running game drops down to 1,000 yards or so for the year.  Honestly, I see the best case being a lot more likely.  All of these guys are talented, so hopefully at least one will take the opportunity and run with it.  You can bank on plenty of moments when Dawg fans will be wishing #1 was still lining up behind Price, however.

-Matthew

December 14th, 2011 - What Happened: Demetrice Martin, who was the cornerback coach at UW, left to fill the same position at UCLA.  He was one of the top recruiters on the Husky staff and his loss was felt immediately in the recruiting realm.  Several commits flipped from UW to UCLA and a few other guys dropped the Huskies from their list.

Looking At It Now:  It doesn’t seem like a big deal now and, frankly, I think it might help the Huskies.  Martin was undoubtedly a good recruiter but I don’t know about his coaching.  Maybe we won’t see our corners lack confidence now?  Maybe they’ll play a little closer to the receiver.  None of the corners have developed under Martin (Q. Rich regressed significantly) and maybe they will under the new coach.  Maybe not, but I think it was time for a change at this coaching position anyway.

December 29th, 2011 – What Happened:  Kevaire Russel, one of the top recruits in the state, announces that he has verbally committed to Notre Dame over the hometown Huskies.  Message boards erupted (I’m talking about you Dawgman) in fury over how Sark can’t recruit.  It was a little shocking and interesting to see that the Huskies couldn’t keep a recruit at home.

Looking At It Now: It’s still a bit alarming that a lot of in-state recruits are turning elsewhere but it was never worth freaking out over.  The Huskies are still in on several big name guys and will probably end up with a very solid class.  I should have saved some of the comments from the Dawgman boards because it’s hilarious how blown out of proportion some were.

December 29th, 2011 -  What Happened:  The Huskies lost one of the most entertaining, frantic, fascinating football games I’ve ever seen.  The Alamo Bowl ended in with Baylor winning 67-56.  I still see that score and am astonished.  Both defenses were absolutely terrible and both offenses were phenomenal.  It’s a shame that a lot of the focus gets put on how horrible the defense was (which I admit, both were horrible) and not put on how good the offenses were.  Watching the national title week several weeks later, I couldn’t help think of how entertaining that game was.  By the way, the Dawgs and Baylor would score touchdowns on LSU and Alabama.

Looking At It Now:  You always want to win.  Let me start off by saying that.  A bowl win is nice because trophies are cool and you don’t want to have 67 points scored on you on national TV.  This game may be responsible for what all happened next and what happened next may be what takes the Dawgs back to the top of the Pac-12.

December 31st, 2011 – What Happened:  Sark fired Nick Holt, Mike Cox and Jeff Mills from his staff.  The Alamo Bowl seemed to be the final straw with the defense and Sark had enough.  It wasn’t much of a surprise and speculation quickly turned to candidates.

Looking At It Now:  It had to happen and it did.

January 2nd, 2012 – What Happened:  The Huskies hired away Justin Wilcox from the Tennessee Volunteers, he was their defensive coordinator.  He brought Peter Sirmon along with him and he will coach the linebackers.  This seemed to be Sark’s first choice and he made the move quickly.  People around the country were impressed by the hire of the up and coming DC and his right-hand recruiting man.

Looking At It Now:  When Sark gave Husky fans a day to speculate about who the new guy might be, Justin Wilcox was my top choice.  Needless to say, I was pleased with the hire.  Wilcox has an impressive resume and seems to know what he’s doing.  His players seemed to love him and he was successful at both of his stops.  He may leave for a head coaching gig soon, but that means that he’d have been successful.  I’m all for this hire and it seems like everyone else is too.

January 12th, 2012 – What Happened:  The Huskies hired Keith Heyward to be their new defensive backs coach.  He is a younger guy who had the same position at Oregon State.  There’s a theme to these hires and it’s that they’re all younger guys.  He was said to be one of the best recruiters on the OSU staff.  I don’t have any examples of his coaching ability.

Looking At It Now:  I don’t have a lot of basis for this but I think this might be the most underrated hire the Huskies made.  It seems like this one was forgotten after all of the news.  Heyward is well liked by recruits and may steal a few from Oregon State this year.  Again, I don’t know much about his coaching ability but he was loved at OSU and was said to be a good hire by many experts.

January 16th, 2012 – What Happened:  The Huskies hired Tosh Lupoi away from the California Golden Bears.  He was their defensive line coach and a pretty successful one.  He is said to be the best recruiter on the west coast and everyone was impressed with the hire.  Many Cal recruits were shocked and said to be opening their recruitment back up.

Looking At It Now:  Well, these last couple only happened a few days ago so there’s not a ton to add except for my opinion.  This is a great hire.  Lupoi probably can’t live up to the hype he has come with because I’ve never seen an assistant coach have so much hype aside from Ed Orgeron, who is the other top recruiting assistant in the Pac-12.  It was the best defensive-line coaching hire Sark could have realistically made.  It was the final piece of, what I consider, the best staff he could have put together.

January 16th 2012 – What Happened:  Nick Montana, the heralded quarterback, decided to transfer from the UW.  He came to the Huskies with much fanfare and didn’t perform very well in his only start (not that it was all his fault).  From what I saw he has a future as a college quarterback.  In fact, from what I saw he could start for Alabama or LSU and win a national championship.

Looking At It Now:  It was inevitable, really.  The guy wants to play and wasn’t going to have much of a chance here.  Watching his demeanor in practice, I was never a huge fan of his but he’s got talent and is a smart kid.  I hope he does well in the future.

January 17th – What Happened:  The Huskies offensive coordinator, Doug Nussmeier, left UW and took the same role at Alabama.  It’s hard to blame him, he’ll get to call his own plays for the defending national champions and he’ll get a raise.  Unfortunately for the Dawgs, Nussmeier was a great coach and they had to fill another position in their staff.  This was the date it became official, it was known quite sometime in advance.

Looking At It Now:  Nussmeier is a good coach and deserves a ton of credit for the progress Jake Locker and Keith Price made.  With that being said, everyone knows this is Sark’s offense.  He is the creative young mind and he has his system.  I would be surprised if the Huskies felt a huge impact by the loss of Nussmeier.  Best of luck to him at Alabama.

January 18th – What Happened:  The Huskies poached another Cal coach in Eric Kiesau to fill the role of offensive coordinator.  He’s another guy who’s said to be a good recruiter.  He was the wide receiver coach at Cal and will coach the quarterbacks here.  Cedric Dozier, another top recruit in Washington who committed to Cal, is said to be reconsidering because of this news.

Looking At It Now:  Another good hire, although I don’t really think it’s an upgrade from Nussmeier.  Time will tell what Kiesau will do on the recruiting trail and I’ll be interested to see if there’s any drop off in the development of the quarterbacks.  I would guess no, because of the presence of Sark.

Wow, a lot has happened.  When I put it all out like this I’m somewhat amazed.  So, where is the program now compared to about a month ago?  It’s hard to tell without a game being played, of course.  Everyone thinks the staff is better than it was.  The recruiting sure seems like it’s going to gain steam at some point in the next couple of weeks, if not days.  With all that in mind, I think the program is trending up.  These hires have given the Huskies some steam but, as we learned with Nick Holt, some hires aren’t as glamorous as they first seem.  Sark did the best that he could, but you just never know.

Two weeks until signing day!  I love that day.  For now, be careful out there in the snow.  It’s a little crazy out there.  Go Dawgs!

Oh, and Nick Holt Jr. transferred to Montana!

Andrew

When I first heard about the trade, my thought was that it was so obvious that I couldn’t believe it happened.  I remember even asking Dan and Andrew back in the summer whether they would make this trade straight-up.  To me, it seems like both teams are trading from a position of strength to fill a weakness.

Most trade analyses you’ll read have a different focus.  You can literally read for hours about whether Montero or Pineda is more valuable, whether Jose Campos or Hector Noesi is more valuable, about who did better in this deal.  All of those issues are interesting and highly debateable, which makes them fun and worth writing.  I think they occasionally miss the point, however.

The goal of a baseball team is not to add the most valuable pieces, or to win the value war in a trade or signing.  The goal is to build the best team.  Typically, the two go hand in hand.  The more value a team can get in a deal, the better.  If given the choice between Adam Dunn for $14 million a year or an outfield of Michael Stanton, Andrew McCutcheon and Jacoby Ellsbury for roughly a third of that amount, the choice is obvious.  You want the most bang for your buck.  You don’t want to spend huge money on guys who will underperform and you ideally want to underpay guys who are good and getting better.  That’s why building up an elite farm system is so important.

What is obvious in the macro view becomes highly nuanced in practice.  It’s not enough to just say that starting pitcher is a more valuable position than designated hitter, or that Pineda has more value than Montero because he’s had a year of major league experience.  Both of those statements are true and yet, they don’t matter too much for the Mariners.  The Mariners strength is their rotation.  They will miss Pineda, especially if he turns into a Cy Young candidate.  The difference between Pineda and Danny Hultzen, James Paxton or Taijuan Walker is potentially tiny, however.  That is compounded by the Safeco Field effect and the way it can turn mediocre pitchers into average ones.  In Safeco, pitching is nowhere near as valuable as hitting, and adding hitting is much more valuable for the current Mariners because they have so little of it.

Speaking of hitting, it’s not crazy to think that Montero could be the most productive guy in the Mariners line-up in 2012.  It’s not certain, of course, which is why there’s some risk here.  Still, where the gap between Pineda and Hultzen is small to non-existent, the gap from Montero to the Mariners best hitting prospect, be it Nick Franklin or Vinnie Catricala or whomever, is huge.  It’s debateable whether Montero or Pineda is more valuable in a vacuum, but I think it’s clear that Montero is much more valuable to the Mariners.

This offense is suddenly sort of interesting.  It will still likely struggle in 2012 as all of the young guys (hopefully) come of age, but with Ackley and Montero and Smoak and possibly Carp, they now have a heart of the order that could turn into something scary.  Now Franklin and Catricala and Wells and everyone else only have to be supporting players rather than stars.  The other fun aspect of this trade is what it allows them to do in the future, as Dave Cameron and others have pointed out.  It’s possible but highly unlikely they still sign Prince Fielder, but assuming they don’t, that potentially leaves them with a lot of money to spend in the near future.  Maybe they add a pitcher for a year or two, or maybe they wait until next year to find an offensive guy at a position of need like third base or outfield.  This deal potentially improves the Mariners immediately and sets them up to more easily improve in the future as well.

As with any trade, this one will not be determined good or bad until we see what Montero and Noesi, to a lesser degree, make themselves into.  It’s tough to see Pineda go.  I’ll never forget those early fastballs that looked like they were thrown at about 150 miles per hour.  This deal potentially gives the Mariners tremendous value, however, whether Montero is more valuable than Pineda or not.

-Matthew